https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1098940146039382016
WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Dylan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 337
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
- Location: New Orleans, LA
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
0 likes
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).
-
TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CORE CONVECTION AND A 10NM
EYE THAT POPS IN AND OUT OF VIEW. A 221712Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING THE VERY DISTINCT PINHOLE
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF THE INFRARED EYE, MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND RADAR FIX
DATA FROM THE ANDERSEN AFB NEXRAD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
HELD AT 105 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW AND
A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH STRONG, PRIMARILY WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SSTS. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TY 02W HAS TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD COURSE BUT THIS IS
LIKELY JUST A WOBBLE ALONG THE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL ANALYSES, PARTICULARLY IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXPECT TY 02W TO TURN
STEADILY MORE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AFTER TAU 48 INTO THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE. AS THE STEERING RIDGE ERODES AND MOVES EAST, TY 02W WILL
ENTER A COL REGION, AND SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COL. TY 02W HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AT 105 KNOTS AND
FROM THIS POINT ON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WITH DECREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
STEADY INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO A
MORE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE
NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 70NM BUT WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS POINT. BY TAU 72, THE SPREAD BETWEEN
OUTLIERS (NAVGEM AND GALWEM) INCREASES TO 140NM, WITH BOTH MODELS
AGREEING ON THE OVERALL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH THIS RUN AND THE JTWC
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WEAK STEERING FLOW. BEING CAUGHT IN THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE CAPTURED BY THE WESTERLY
FLOW AND THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FURTHER DETERIORATE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH INCREASING VWS,
COOLER SSTS AND LOWER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO ONLY 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AT THIS POINT, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM BECOMES THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN WHICH WILL
PUSH THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JGSM AND
GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH ARE STILL TRYING TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT THIS SOLUTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED. THE GALWEM,
ECMWF AND EGRR TRACKERS ARE INDICATING A SHARPER TURN WESTWARD AS
THEY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AT A FASTER RATE AND SHIFT THE STEERING
MECHANISM A BIT EARLIER RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF 500M BETWEEN THE
GALWEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES
JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CORE CONVECTION AND A 10NM
EYE THAT POPS IN AND OUT OF VIEW. A 221712Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING THE VERY DISTINCT PINHOLE
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF THE INFRARED EYE, MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND RADAR FIX
DATA FROM THE ANDERSEN AFB NEXRAD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
HELD AT 105 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW AND
A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH STRONG, PRIMARILY WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SSTS. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TY 02W HAS TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD COURSE BUT THIS IS
LIKELY JUST A WOBBLE ALONG THE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL ANALYSES, PARTICULARLY IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXPECT TY 02W TO TURN
STEADILY MORE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AFTER TAU 48 INTO THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE. AS THE STEERING RIDGE ERODES AND MOVES EAST, TY 02W WILL
ENTER A COL REGION, AND SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COL. TY 02W HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AT 105 KNOTS AND
FROM THIS POINT ON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WITH DECREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
STEADY INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO A
MORE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE
NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 70NM BUT WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS POINT. BY TAU 72, THE SPREAD BETWEEN
OUTLIERS (NAVGEM AND GALWEM) INCREASES TO 140NM, WITH BOTH MODELS
AGREEING ON THE OVERALL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH THIS RUN AND THE JTWC
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WEAK STEERING FLOW. BEING CAUGHT IN THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE CAPTURED BY THE WESTERLY
FLOW AND THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FURTHER DETERIORATE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH INCREASING VWS,
COOLER SSTS AND LOWER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO ONLY 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AT THIS POINT, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM BECOMES THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN WHICH WILL
PUSH THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JGSM AND
GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH ARE STILL TRYING TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT THIS SOLUTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED. THE GALWEM,
ECMWF AND EGRR TRACKERS ARE INDICATING A SHARPER TURN WESTWARD AS
THEY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AT A FASTER RATE AND SHIFT THE STEERING
MECHANISM A BIT EARLIER RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF 500M BETWEEN THE
GALWEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES
JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
Winds gusting to over 40 mph now as the eye continues to pass us.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
-
doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2400
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1099043820560371714
https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1098968479863095297
https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1098968479863095297
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
Impressive radar presentation.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
Maybe 115 knots in the next warning?
TXPQ27 KNES 230310
TCSWNP
A. 02W (WUTIP)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 11.0N
D. 143.5E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN AN ENO OF 5.5 AND
EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5 FOR A DT OF 6.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
TCSWNP
A. 02W (WUTIP)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 11.0N
D. 143.5E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN AN ENO OF 5.5 AND
EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5 FOR A DT OF 6.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
TPPN10 PGTW 230317
A. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 10.99N
D. 143.48E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/2344Z 10.55N 143.78E MMHS
VEERKAMP
A. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 10.99N
D. 143.48E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/2344Z 10.55N 143.78E MMHS
VEERKAMP
0 likes
-
doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2400
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
TyphoonNara wrote:Maybe 115 knots in the next warning?TXPQ27 KNES 230310
TCSWNP
A. 02W (WUTIP)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 11.0N
D. 143.5E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN AN ENO OF 5.5 AND
EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5 FOR A DT OF 6.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURKTPPN10 PGTW 230317
A. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 10.99N
D. 143.48E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/2344Z 10.55N 143.78E MMHS
VEERKAMP
Will probably remain at 105kts, or just slightly bumped to 110kts.
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
-
TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
JMA up to 85 knots.
<Analysis at 03 UTC, 23 February>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N11°00' (11.0°)
E143°30' (143.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 23 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N11°55' (11.9°)
E142°50' (142.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 24 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N12°50' (12.8°)
E142°25' (142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35' (13.6°)
E141°20' (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05' (15.1°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N11°00' (11.0°)
E143°30' (143.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 23 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N11°55' (11.9°)
E142°50' (142.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 24 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N12°50' (12.8°)
E142°25' (142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35' (13.6°)
E141°20' (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05' (15.1°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
0 likes
-
1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
Considering current trends on IR, 115 kt may be very reasonable for 06Z. I'd like to see a good microwave pass before I go too gung-ho though.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
02W WUTIP
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 23, 2019:
Location: 11.3°N 143.3°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 23, 2019:
Location: 11.3°N 143.3°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
0 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
-
TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
Excellent polar outflow. May start explosive intensification soon. This reminds me of Higos in 2015 and Jelewat last year. 
1 likes
-
TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
Cat 4 now.
02W WUTIP
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 23, 2019:
Location: 11.4°N 143.2°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 943 mb
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 23, 2019:
Location: 11.4°N 143.2°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 943 mb
0 likes
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
I see that JTWC revised it up 
0 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
The last time a major typhoon or more happened was 2015 Typhoon Higos, when was the last time before that? Typhoon Nancy of 1970 is the only thing I could find, according to JMA Wutip is already tied to Nancy
A major typhoon or more in February happened again 11 times sooner than when it happened last time. Does 'AGW' finally making its effects on the tropics more pronounced?
A major typhoon or more in February happened again 11 times sooner than when it happened last time. Does 'AGW' finally making its effects on the tropics more pronounced?
0 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
000
WTPQ61 PGUM 230724
TCUPQ1
TYPHOON WUTIP 02W TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022019
500 PM ChST Sat Feb 23 2019
...457 PM CHST...0657 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...
SUMMARY OF 457 PM CHST...0657 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 143.1E
ELEVATION...0.5 DEGREES...23900 FEET
CENTER CHARACTERISTIC...COMPLETE EYEWALL VISIBLE.
POSITION CONFIDENCE...GOOD.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM RADAR
230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA AIRPORT
295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AIRPORT
305 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN AIRPORT
RADAR DETERMINED MOTION OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
ONE HOUR IS 8 KT (9 MPH) TOWARDS 330 DEGREES OR NORTH-NORTHWEST.
SIGNIFICANT RADAR-VELOCITY REMARKS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS IN AND OUT VELOCITIES OF UP TO 74 KNOTS
WITHIN 45 MILES OF THE RADAR AT APPROXIMATELY 3600 FEET.
OTHER FACTORS OR INFORMATION
----------------------------
THE EYE DIAMETER FROM THE RADAR IMAGERY REMAINS AT AROUND 20 MILES.
DISCUSSION
----------
THE SPIRAL BANDS REMAIN VISIBLE AROUND TYPHOON WUTIP. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER. THE ELEVATION OF THE RADAR BEAM IS
NOW AT AROUND 23900 FT.
NEXT MESSAGE
------------
RADAR POSITIONS WILL BE ISSUED...AT THE MOST FREQUENT...EVERY
HOUR...BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON WUTIP.
$$
BAQUI
WTPQ61 PGUM 230724
TCUPQ1
TYPHOON WUTIP 02W TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022019
500 PM ChST Sat Feb 23 2019
...457 PM CHST...0657 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...
SUMMARY OF 457 PM CHST...0657 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 143.1E
ELEVATION...0.5 DEGREES...23900 FEET
CENTER CHARACTERISTIC...COMPLETE EYEWALL VISIBLE.
POSITION CONFIDENCE...GOOD.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM RADAR
230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA AIRPORT
295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AIRPORT
305 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN AIRPORT
RADAR DETERMINED MOTION OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
ONE HOUR IS 8 KT (9 MPH) TOWARDS 330 DEGREES OR NORTH-NORTHWEST.
SIGNIFICANT RADAR-VELOCITY REMARKS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS IN AND OUT VELOCITIES OF UP TO 74 KNOTS
WITHIN 45 MILES OF THE RADAR AT APPROXIMATELY 3600 FEET.
OTHER FACTORS OR INFORMATION
----------------------------
THE EYE DIAMETER FROM THE RADAR IMAGERY REMAINS AT AROUND 20 MILES.
DISCUSSION
----------
THE SPIRAL BANDS REMAIN VISIBLE AROUND TYPHOON WUTIP. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER. THE ELEVATION OF THE RADAR BEAM IS
NOW AT AROUND 23900 FT.
NEXT MESSAGE
------------
RADAR POSITIONS WILL BE ISSUED...AT THE MOST FREQUENT...EVERY
HOUR...BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON WUTIP.
$$
BAQUI
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon
Had a great view of the white out conditions at my work. Very strong winds.
Peak winds were 53 mph recorded at Andersen and 54 mph at the Guam airport.
Winds are still gusting close to 50 mph while rains have kinda lessened.
Peak winds were 53 mph recorded at Andersen and 54 mph at the Guam airport.
Winds are still gusting close to 50 mph while rains have kinda lessened.
1 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests