ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the real scoop on Multi-Sat Analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... p#MPSATWND

Do you have the cliff note version of that.

Bottom line - don't assume those multi-spectrum winds bear any resemblance to surface winds. They may be using a 700mb pattern and reducing the winds to the surface, which isn't a good idea for such a weak system.

it uses ASCAT (when available) among the others. can be within a certain percentage of accuracy. very useful..

[wxman57]

Do you have the cliff note version of that.

Bottom line - don't assume those multi-spectrum winds bear any resemblance to surface winds. They may be using a 700mb pattern and reducing the winds to the surface, which isn't a good idea for such a weak system.

it uses ASCAT among the others. can be within a certain percentage of accuracy. very useful..

Just because it CAN use ASCAT, doesn't mean there is any ASCAT data available.

[wxman57]

The only sign of any rotation I can see is over the northern Keys. Winds across the central and southern Keys are from the WNW-NW. Calm over northern Keys, ENE winds in Miami. Very poorly-organized and broad low. Nowhere close to being a TD.

[Aric Dunn]

Bottom line - don't assume those multi-spectrum winds bear any resemblance to surface winds. They may be using a 700mb pattern and reducing the winds to the surface, which isn't a good idea for such a weak system.

it uses ASCAT among the others. can be within a certain percentage of accuracy. very useful..

Just because it CAN use ASCAT, doesn't mean there is any data available.

I added "when available" just after you clicked reply Also It does "bear" a resemblance to the surface winds.. thats exactly what it does.... to a certain degree of accuracy of course. its a general ball park. as it is with most tools in meteorology..

[psyclone]

The real tell WRT to winds is a lack of even small craft advisories in any Florida waters. Even a low end depression (25kt) would warrant that..

[wxman57]

I added "when available" just after you clicked reply Also It does "bear" a resemblance to the surface winds.. thats exactly what it does.... to a certain degree of accuracy of course. its a general ball park. as it is with most tools in meteorology..

The latest version isn't too bad. No more widespread 20-25kt winds. More like 5-15 kts most areas. And it does have the low over the northern Keys.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[Aric Dunn]

well the collpase of convection as allowed to see the circ.. still roughly in the same location.. validate it on radar as well

looks like it was just the seabreeze's causing surface obs to be all funky. the definition of the circ is coming back now that the seabreeze's are relaxing.. I would wager convection coming back strong in the next few hours..

[floridasun78]

miami it dry up now all storm are in bahamas and alone west coast but not big mass

[GCANE]

well the collpase of convection as allowed to see the circ.. still roughly in the same location.. validate it on radar as well

looks like it was just the seabreeze's causing surface obs to be all funky. the definition of the circ is coming back now that the seabreeze's are relaxing.. I would wager convection coming back strong in the next few hours..

Spot On Aric!

[boca]

I wonder if the rain down by Andros Island will make it to SE Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

I am also watching off the west coast for an eddy to form from the convection leaving the coast. could see some meso features to the west that could take over.

[jlauderdal]

miami it dry up now all storm are in bahamas and alone west coast but not big mass

Im in sw dade and its partly cloudy, the nws forecast for today was a bust

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[tolakram]

I don't think this qualified for a TD, perhaps the NHC knows how do to their job? I love the enthusiasm, and if we can keep unwarranted criticism out of the conversation then this would be a more perfect world.

[OuterBanker]

Wxman and Aric both have valid statements.
The GFS and CMC 12z (I know, I know) agree with each other with 98l around or just west of Naples crossing Fl then organizing east of Fl.
Looks like the HWRF gets it to tropical storm just off the NC coast and close to all the coasts as it heads NE OTS.
I am hoping that it remains a mess and nothing really comes of it.
Couple of caveats though. The area involved now is rather massive, if it does manage to consolidate into a well-formed tropical system it could be a rather large storm.
It should stay enough off the coast to not have much effect on the coast, but a coast rider is not out of the question yet.

[Aric Dunn]

waterspout reported offshore miami beach... with the heavy cell on the NW..

[Aric Dunn]

Im watching the convection off the SW coast and over the keys like a hawk. its carrying a bunch of angular momentum. low level flow south of the keys has become out of the west. possible something tries down there as well.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm betting on 99l becoming a depression/storm before 98l. Looks like way better outflow. Just needs to get out of the dry enviroment.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm....

[hipshot]

hmmm....

https://i.ibb.co/B2qQfxZ/Capture.png

Aric, what are we looking at here?