ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

Hi Dorian!

The upgrades keep coming sooner than I've been expecting. I was sure they'd wait another advisory at least.

[psyclone]

The level of organization is quite impressive. If I were in the eastern Caribbean islands...hope for the best...but don't count on it. I'm expecting hurricane watches tomorrow for some of these regions based on proximity/forward motion, the forecast and present organized status.

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1165371107014103040

My god... IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE

[zhukm29]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1165371107014103040

My god... IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE

Even though organization has been impressive, I wouldn't say it's at that level yet. At least, I hope not

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1165371107014103040

My god... IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE

Even though organization has been impressive, I wouldn't say it's at that level yet. At least, I hope not

I was joking, it’s kind of a meme around here.

[AutoPenalti]

Imo, seems to be on a weakening trend. I’m quite surprised as to why NHC upgraded this to a TS.


Then again, they work for NHC and they have their reasons, they know what they are doing.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Imo, seems to be on a weakening trend. I’m quite surprised as to why NHC upgraded this to a TS.


Then again, they work for NHC and they have their reasons, they know what they are doing.

Does it? It looks better organized to me. Shallow convection, but there's convection building right over the LLC and spiral banding is increasing.

[Evil Jeremy]

Imo, seems to be on a weakening trend. I’m quite surprised as to why NHC upgraded this to a TS.


Then again, they work for NHC and they have their reasons, they know what they are doing.

Forecaster Stewart knows exactly what he's doing

[ScottNAtlanta]

Imo, seems to be on a weakening trend. I’m quite surprised as to why NHC upgraded this to a TS.


Then again, they work for NHC and they have their reasons, they know what they are doing.

I'm not sure where you would see a weakening trend. It has a ball of convection firing over the center and microwave has been getting consistently better in presentation. Even the easterly shear is starting to lessen.

[AutoPenalti]

Imo, seems to be on a weakening trend. I’m quite surprised as to why NHC upgraded this to a TS.


Then again, they work for NHC and they have their reasons, they know what they are doing.

I'm not sure where you would see a weakening trend. It has a ball of convection firing over the center and microwave has been getting consistently better in presentation. Even the easterly shear is starting to lessen.

Mid-level dry air is and will continue to be an issue for this system.

[NikhilTri]

This relatively deep convection that has popped up over the center over the past few hours looks very organized. We'll see if it's able to 1) sustain itself through dmin and 2) become larger in size. Has the look of convection in an organized TC, so it may be the start of a core for this sytem

[weatherwindow]

Hello Luis at all ... The Windwards especially Martinique and points north should pay close attention to Dorian... early forecasts are suggesting a very close approach ....Rich

[Highteeld]

05L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L 18:00UTC 24August2019
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from NHC) :
Latitude : 10:33:02 N
Longitude : 48:39:10 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 921.1 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 87.9 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.5 m/s (12.7 kts)
Direction : 214.7 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

[TheStormExpert]

I’m having a hard time believing that Dorian will be a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard.

[Hammy]

I’m having a hard time believing that Dorian will be a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard.

We've interestingly had several small storms with similar forecasts, that ended up spinning up rapidly (and exceeding the forecast) but still ended up dissipating before or in the Caribbean, which is probably what it'll do in this case.

[Visioen]

I just love Dorian.
Small system in a bunch of dry air, moderate to strong shear, all odds against it.
He doesn't care, delevops a core, keeps going.
Models in tears, wondering where did they go wrong.

Now be good to people so I can keep loving you.

[MetroMike]

I’m having a hard time believing that Dorian will be a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard.

We've interestingly had several small storms with similar forecasts, that ended up spinning up rapidly (and exceeding the forecast) but still ended up dissipating before or in the Caribbean, which is probably what it'll do in this case.

That is not in the forecast Hammy. I think the NHC has a handle on this at least in the short term.

[Highteeld]

I just love Dorian.
Small system in a bunch of dry air, moderate to strong shear, all odds against it.
He doesn't care, delevops a core, keeps going.
Models in tears, wondering where did they go wrong.

Now be good to people so I can keep loving you.

Clearly inspired by Florence last year (first RI phase)

[abajan]

Should I cancel monday night dinner plans in Barbados or too early

I guess it's still a bit too early for that. Tomorrow we should have a clearer picture of what might unfold, especially after recon goes in. Of course, I don't know if you're using caterers and how long beforehand their services need to be cancelled or whatever. But that's the best I can advise.

[Hammy]

I’m having a hard time believing that Dorian will be a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard.

We've interestingly had several small storms with similar forecasts, that ended up spinning up rapidly (and exceeding the forecast) but still ended up dissipating before or in the Caribbean, which is probably what it'll do in this case.

That is not in the forecast Hammy. I think the NHC has a handle on this at least in the short term.

That's the point though--I think they're overestimating the end-range forecast, but I think it could very well exceed that in the shorter term if the surrounding conditions can be kept away from the core.