ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

12z Euro was through SFL in @96 hours into GOM and landfall @Pensacola. If Dorian stalls and goes north offshore like the ensembles say, that's an epic fail for the Euro within 96 hours...

[Dean4Storms]

988mb, Dorian is way ahead of most guidance in deepening. Not a good sign at all!

[Blown Away]

988mb, Dorian is way ahead of most guidance in deepening. Not a good sign at all!

How did you determine that?

[DESTRUCTION5]

988mb, Dorian is way ahead of most guidance in deepening. Not a good sign at all!

Closed Wall too 12 Nautical from 16

[drewschmaltz]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

12z Euro was through SFL in @96 hours into GOM and landfall @Pensacola. If Dorian stalls and goes north offshore like the ensembles say, that's an epic fail for the Euro within 96 hours...

Boy that stall out is too close for comfort. FL may get hit a lot but at least the storms are usually in and out...

[jdray]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

No major hurricane has ever made landfall north of Martin County as far as records go. Dora of 1964 is as close as one came.

There is still debate as to if Dora was a true Major Hurricane or not at landfall.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... 196406.pdf



It had estimated winds of 115mph while portions of the eyewall were entering St Augustine.
Downtown Fernandina had sustained wind speeds of 100mph, which is almost 50 miles north of landfall.

[toad strangler]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

12z Euro was through SFL in @96 hours into GOM and landfall @Pensacola. If Dorian stalls and goes north offshore like the ensembles say, that's an epic fail for the Euro within 96 hours...

It was just 4 that stalled pre landfall.Ughhh on that happening afterwards

[gatorcane]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

The strongest members are either through SE Florida or turning north just east of Florida while the relatively “weaker” members are through Central Florida. That actually makes some sense when looking at climo for hurricanes approaching Florida from the east. Not sure I can buy the turn east of Florida though.

[Dean4Storms]

988mb, Dorian is way ahead of most guidance in deepening. Not a good sign at all!

How did you determine that?

Recon last report of center at 988mb and most of the guidance has kept Dorian 995mb or higher well north of it’s current location.

[Steve]

NAM is running. 12km is out to 42 hours and has it 23.7/70.2. If you go back to the 18z and add 6 hours (puts you at 48 hours on that run), 23.65/70.45. 12z at 54 hours has 21.5N/69.45. So slightly north of the last run's plot for that time and slightly east but not appreciable.

[Dean4Storms]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

The strongest members are either through SE Florida or turning north just east of Florida while the relatively “weaker” members are through Central Florida. That actually makes some sense when looking at climo for hurricanes approaching Florida from the east.

The members weaker north is due to some slight NE shear from a 200mb Ridge to its north as well as the 500mb ridge to it’s NE. The Southern members which turn more westerly lessen those shear values.

[Jr0d]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

Right now I will consider this possibility an outlier and throw it out. However if the trend continues on the next couple of model runs, then it may be onto something.

My thinking is tomorrow's model runs will have the benefit of the extra weather balloon data(4 a day instead of 2 in many locations) and more synoptic sampling from the recon missions, therefore should give us a much better picture.

[fci]

Cpw17, check out Floyd's 1999 track - the models did favor it turning away from South Florida and making landfall north of Cape Canaveral...

Umm.. if you consider North Carolina north of Cape Canaveral, sure...

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1166891395665321985




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1166893338970271744




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1166894873804451840




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1166898392561266689




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1166900282997055495

[toad strangler]

delete

[Steve]

NAM 12km at 72 hours (valid Saturday 8pm EDT) is at 26.15N, 76.25W

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Quick question. I thought stronger storms tended to move poleward. What is making Dorian move more to the south if it is a stronger storm in this case?

[Steve]

NAM is finished out to 84 hours with mostly a slightly north of due west approach to the SE FL Coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2900&fh=84

If you switch it to 500mb, the pattern flattens out as the shortwave moves by. you can see high pressure centered around Maine and extending pretty broadly E/W across the Eastern US. So you think it's got to go West or WNW below both that and the midlevel ridge extending in from the Atlantic. Maybe Broward or Palm Beach County if it continued its run.

[Steve]

Quick question. I thought stronger storms tended to move poleward. What is making Dorian move more to the south if it is a stronger storm in this case?

Applicable Steering currents to its north e.g. blocking high pressure

[SFLcane]

00z suite of models has not followed the operational EURO me bets the euro shifts north tonight. We shall see