ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Quick question. I thought stronger storms tended to move poleward. What is making Dorian move more to the south if it is a stronger storm in this case?

Running up against a rock (Ridge of High Pressure) in a clockwise around it stream at the steering level.

[AutoPenalti]

00z suite of models has not followed the operational EURO me bets the euro shifts north tonight. We shall see

I highly doubt it tbh.

[toad strangler]

11PM Cone largely unchanged EXCEPT have this storm really slowing down nearing the FL coast lending credence to what 18z Euro was showing.

[KC7NEC]

11PM Cone largely unchanged but this storm really slows down nearing the FL coat lending credence to what 18z Euro was showing.

was very surprised to see essentially no change in cone or track with the update.

[toad strangler]

11PM Cone largely unchanged but this storm really slows down nearing the FL coat lending credence to what 18z Euro was showing.

was very surprised to see essentially no change in cone or track with the update.

But look where they had Dorian at 2PM on Sunday and where it is now 8PM Sunday. Hardly any movement at all. SLOWING DOWN

[stormlover2013]

Nah they won’t just model hop, they are waiting to see new data tonight to before the make a change on everything

[AxaltaRacing24]

Nah they won’t just model hop, they are waiting to see new data tonight to before the make a change on everything

Correct. Not enough info to make changes yet. Tomorrow night into Friday is where we should know more.

[toad strangler]

Nah they won’t just model hop, they are waiting to see new data tonight to before the make a change on everything

I didn’t say the NHC was modeling hugging. I said the cone itself lends credence to the 18z Euro.

[Blown Away]

At the end of the day, the NHC typically just follows the TVCN...

[stormlover2013]

Nah they won’t just model hop, they are waiting to see new data tonight to before the make a change on everything

I didn’t say the NHC was modeling hugging. I said the cone itself lends credence to the 18z Euro.

Never said u did my man

[AxaltaRacing24]

Nah they won’t just model hop, they are waiting to see new data tonight to before the make a change on everything

I didn’t say the NHC was modeling hugging. I said the cone itself lends credence to the 18z Euro.

Nah. It was basically a copy/paste of the 5pm forecast. That one had the same motion.

[toad strangler]

Nah they won’t just model hop, they are waiting to see new data tonight to before the make a change on everything

I didn’t say the NHC was modeling hugging. I said the cone itself lends credence to the 18z Euro.

Nah. It was basically a copy/paste of the 5pm forecast. That one had the same motion.

The time stamps

[Blinhart]

The cone of uncertainity didn't change at all from the previous advisory at all. If you look at the time plots it still shows 8am and 8pm for most of them except for the initial one. So they didn't do anything but change the initial point.

[toad strangler]

The time stamps. Compare to the previous cone especially right near the coast.

Call me crazy but I think this is a pretty big development since 12z.

[KC7NEC]

I looked at the tracks and the landfall point on the previous NHC track was only moved 6.2 miles north with the new track

[Bocadude85]

0z ICON almost identical to the 18z Euro, definitely northwest of its 18z run

[AdamFirst]

00z ICON has been rolling

Our consistent southern outlier looks to have shifted north a tad and is faster, impacting Abaco at 81hr

[catskillfire51]

Icon at 102hrs is a little north or maybe just a little faster, almost seems it’s about to take a nudge south but will have to see

[fci]

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

You're assuming it will be a cat. 4 or 5 and you cant make that assumption

It's cat 3 and that's what NHC is predicting. Less than cat 3 all bets off. Lots have hit north of Martin cat 2 or less.

Do you have any statistics on this?
My recollection is only Dora directly hitting north of Martin.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=120

120 hr icon has Miami written all over it