ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[NDG]

You are sure not giving up on the LLC making it into the SE GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm....

https://i.ibb.co/B2qQfxZ/Capture.png

Aric, what are we looking at here?

The surface obs.

[Aric Dunn]

So who needs a nice hot bath ? lol

[hipshot]

hmmm....

https://i.ibb.co/B2qQfxZ/Capture.png

Aric, what are we looking at here?

The surface obs.

What are those little blue circles?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what are we looking at here?

The surface obs.

What are those little blue circles?

most of them are buoys. a couple are CMAN stations recording weather data.

[GCANE]

hmmm....

https://i.ibb.co/B2qQfxZ/Capture.png

Aric, what are we looking at here?

The surface obs.

LoL, what I have been thinking too.

[hipshot]

The surface obs.

What are those little blue circles?

most of them are buoys. a couple are CMAN stations recording weather data.

Thanks, I sort of figured that but the ones over land confused me a little.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what are we looking at here?

The surface obs.

LoL, what I have been thinking too.

which part ? lol

[GCANE]

Didn't get as much afternoon popups as I thought we would.
Hence, UL trough still anchored in.

[GCANE]

The surface obs.

LoL, what I have been thinking too.

which part ? lol

Surface low setting up SW of the UL Trough

[GCANE]

Tons of lightning around this

[GCANE]

Reeeally interesting since its firing in some heavy-duty dry air.

[GCANE]

Looking at IR, definitely a short-duration vortical hot tower.

Something is down there.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at IR, definitely a short-duration vortical hot tower.

Something is down there.

A lot of momentum was transferred from earlier. so let see what happens.

[ronjon]

Not sure about NHC going with Euro solution here. Weak low looks to be heading west across the everglades.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure about NHC going with Euro solution here. Weak low looks to be heading west across the everglades.

at least with surface obs and TPW. looks like it will make into the gulf.

but of course, if enough convection builds offshore then well a reformation offshore is possible..

or we get a split system... just have to wait and see..

[johngaltfla]

Not sure about NHC going with Euro solution here. Weak low looks to be heading west across the everglades.

at least with surface obs and TPW. looks like it will make into the gulf.

but of course, if enough convection builds offshore then well a reformation offshore is possible..

or we get a split system... just have to wait and see..

https://i.ibb.co/SnsXjzm/1.gif

Aric, I think you're on to something. It's very rare for a system to develop once it travels up the spine of Florida so the best odds for it would be for it to travel off Naples and ride up the West Coast. Otherwise, this could go poof in the next 48 hours.

With all the rain we've had, I have no problem with that happening.

...just my opinion, not a forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

every observation I can load lol ... best estimate at the moment. Still chugging west. just have to wait and see still.. but this will pull more rain over florida than the Euro track if it makes it much farther west.

[ObsessedMiami]

Well it’s been a total bust so far in West Kendall. We had about 3 minutes of showers and now I can see the stars this evening.
Just going by radar observations, it looks like the center of circulation is right over me.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar

Weather Underground radar:
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/fl/key-west/amx
Site gives me issues sometimes.

Long length Florida radar loop:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Long length short range Miami radar loop:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

Long length long range Miami radar loop:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

Wundermap radar:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... rm-cells=0

NOAA Short range:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 11&loop=no

NOAA Long range:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 11&loop=no

College of DuPage South Florida radar (up to 200 frames):
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... 24-0-100-1

RealEarth from the Space Science & Engineering Center (SSEC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison:
https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/31a8zv
Can select a long loop on an interactive map.