ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

We initiated advisories this morning. I believe that the NHC needs development chances for the first 48 hrs to reach 70% to initiate PTC advisories for "Nine". Could be tomorrow. For now, we're close to the TVCN (not having seen it first). Pensacola with a weak TS. Track has a much better chance of shifting east than west. More time over Florida would mean weaker.

[GeneratorPower]

We initiated advisories this morning. I believe that the NHC needs development chances for the first 48 hrs to reach 70% to initiate PTC advisories for "Nine". Could be tomorrow. For now, we're close to the TVCN (not having seen it first). Pensacola with a weak TS. Track has a much better chance of shifting east than west. More time over Florida would mean weaker.

I suppose it’s wait and see for South FL then. What do you think about intensity possibilities on FL landfall?

[gatorcane]

The 850mb vort is gradually becoming more defined:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1171936638231932929

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro more north at 48 hours and more organized. looks like develops by tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[SFLcane]

Both HWRF and HMON bring 95L into SFL as a weak moderate TS 45-50kts.

[psyclone]

We initiated advisories this morning. I believe that the NHC needs development chances for the first 48 hrs to reach 70% to initiate PTC advisories for "Nine". Could be tomorrow. For now, we're close to the TVCN (not having seen it first). Pensacola with a weak TS. Track has a much better chance of shifting east than west. More time over Florida would mean weaker.

That seems like a very reasonable solution. the good news is that the sensible wx for a disturbance vs depression or low end storm is about the same for those of us on land. I'm looking forward to some changeable, interesting and...less hot.. weather.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro 60mph just wnw of Free port at 70 hours.

[p1nheadlarry]

It sure looks like the NHC is not buying the EURO and
ICON runs so far with WNW hook.

They have access to guidance that the public doesn’t have. I would stick with their word. They also mention this will go through the FL Straits and SEFL so that’s also farther south than the models indicate.

I believe that the only model that the NHC forecasters have that we don't is the FSU Superensemble.

Off topic but Dr Krishnamurti who championed that died last year sadly

[CrazyC83]

We initiated advisories this morning. I believe that the NHC needs development chances for the first 48 hrs to reach 70% to initiate PTC advisories for "Nine". Could be tomorrow. For now, we're close to the TVCN (not having seen it first). Pensacola with a weak TS. Track has a much better chance of shifting east than west. More time over Florida would mean weaker.

They would also need a watch or warning required. If it is confidently forecasted to remain a depression over Florida, no watches or warnings would be necessary and they wouldn't need to issue as such.

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

[gatorcane]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

Wow Euro keeps getting stronger each run.

Could be more of an issue for Florida than we think. We shall see.

[Cpv17]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

That’s way farther north than the NHC indicates.

[psyclone]

The rightward tilt makes some sense just based on the convection splayed off to the northeast. It's not difficult to envision this not making it to the gulf. Pre genesis (assuming there is one) I'm really going to pay attention to how the shape of the NHC's development area changes..

[jlauderdal]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

Wow Euro keeps getting stronger each run.

Could be more of an issue for Florida than we think. We shall see.

Trend is east, maybe we never get it like dorian, east of florida would be very different then nhc for now

[DioBrando]

Are there any anticyclones near the gulf?

[Aric Dunn]

[SouthDadeFish]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

Those are the 925 mb winds. Surface winds would likely be at least 20% less than that.

[hipshot]

https://i.ibb.co/hF72Kfm/14.gif

Boy, I hope that doesn't happen. The northern Bahamas don't need this!!

[cjrciadt]

Well, that escalated quickly