ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I'd be curious to see the 06z Euro track somehow.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Even if this HWRF pans out SFL would enjoy a nice beach breeze as all the wx on this thing will be to the north of were it makes landfall if any.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Yes, the 06z Euro shifted a little to the left closer to the FL east coast.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
tgenius wrote:chris, how close does it get to SFL in the 48-72h timeframe?
It never does all the wx remains over the ocean.
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WeatherEmperor
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
It is amazing that these storms go out their way to avoid SE FL. Dorian did, 95L is modeled by the Euro and UK to do the same and another system the Euro has behind it turning away from SE FL in the 8-10 day range
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Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:
It is amazing that these storms go out their way to avoid FL. Dorian did, 95L is modeled by the Euro and UK to do the same and another system the Euro has behind it turning away from FL in the 8-10 day range
Even Irma avoided SE FL. Our shields have come in handy post-Andrew.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12z guidance shifts even further east near melbourne. Would not be surprised if heads out to sea before its all said and done.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Will be fascinating to see if/when GFS budges today.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:
It is amazing that these storms go out their way to avoid FL. Dorian did, 95L is modeled by the Euro and UK to do the same and another system the Euro has behind it turning away from FL in the 8-10 day range
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Yup Florida's hurricane shield is back on after the last few seasons.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:
It is amazing that these storms go out their way to avoid FL. Dorian did, 95L is modeled by the Euro and UK to do the same and another system the Euro has behind it turning away from FL in the 8-10 day range
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Yup Florida's hurricane shield is back on after the last few seasons.
This is insane to say this. Michael destroyed the panhandle last year, Irma tore up SW FL just two years ago and this storm isn't resolved yet. I liked you better when you were telling us all that the season was canceled back in mid August
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:
It is amazing that these storms go out their way to avoid FL. Dorian did, 95L is modeled by the Euro and UK to do the same and another system the Euro has behind it turning away from FL in the 8-10 day range
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yup Florida's hurricane shield is back on after the last few seasons.
I wish we had even more reliable data before the 1850s. It would be interesting to compare S. FL's relatively quiet period since the 1960s with other comparable timeframes going even further back.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:
It is amazing that these storms go out their way to avoid FL. Dorian did, 95L is modeled by the Euro and UK to do the same and another system the Euro has behind it turning away from FL in the 8-10 day range
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Yup Florida's hurricane shield is back on after the last few seasons.
Sure.. enjoy the SW breeze this weekend.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
toad strangler wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote: It is amazing that these storms go out their way to avoid FL. Dorian did, 95L is modeled by the Euro and UK to do the same and another system the Euro has behind it turning away from FL in the 8-10 day range
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yup Florida's hurricane shield is back on after the last few seasons.
This is insane to say this. Michael destroyed the panhandle last year, Irma tore up SW FL just two years ago and this storm isn't resolved yet. I liked you better when you were telling us all that the season was canceled back in mid August
I'm just making a statement, whether it's true or not is yet to be seen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SW breeze and 97 degrees and sunny I choose the rain and wind up in north and central Florida.The Tampa Bay shield is encompassing SE Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I laugh when people up north sound disappointed - maybe they should move here and suffer through a hurricane aftermath that usually lasts until December and beyond...
P.S. The state was wounded by Charley, Frances, and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005 and Irma 2 years ago with the entire citrus crop ruined and the Keys communities suffering serious damage along with many SW and NE Florida homes flooded, and of course extreme Michael last year, so I don't see the "Florida shield" they moan about and I've lived here for 43 years - unless they prefer we suffer every summer for the entertainment of Internet trolls...
P.P.S. Many rely on the models too much - instead they should look towards the long range patterns that often can determine hurricane landfalls. Right now, it seems an early Fall is indicated in coming weeks, with deep troughs moving quickly from west to east in a zonal pattern. That really determines if any CV system will reach the US - right now the long term pattern favors recurves and that's all right for those of us living in Florida...
P.S. The state was wounded by Charley, Frances, and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005 and Irma 2 years ago with the entire citrus crop ruined and the Keys communities suffering serious damage along with many SW and NE Florida homes flooded, and of course extreme Michael last year, so I don't see the "Florida shield" they moan about and I've lived here for 43 years - unless they prefer we suffer every summer for the entertainment of Internet trolls...
P.P.S. Many rely on the models too much - instead they should look towards the long range patterns that often can determine hurricane landfalls. Right now, it seems an early Fall is indicated in coming weeks, with deep troughs moving quickly from west to east in a zonal pattern. That really determines if any CV system will reach the US - right now the long term pattern favors recurves and that's all right for those of us living in Florida...
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Assuming anything past 4 days at this point is dangerous. Can some of you all try harder not to say stupid things please? This is NOT a game.
Here's the 0Z euro, it was probably posted earlier.
Here's the 0Z euro, it was probably posted earlier.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12z Guidance... TVCN shifted west from 06z...
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Frank2 wrote:I laugh when people up north sound disappointed - maybe they should move here and suffer through a hurricane aftermath that usually lasts until December and beyond...
P.S. The state was wounded by Charley, Frances, and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005 and Irma 2 years ago with the entire citrus crop ruined and the Keys communities suffering serious damage along with many SW and NE Florida homes flooded and of course extreme Michael last year, so I don't see the "Floida shield" they moan about and I've lived here for 43 years - unless they prefer we suffer every summer for the entertainment of Internet trolls...
P.P.S. Many rely on the models too much - instead they should look towards the long range patterns that often can determine hurricane landfalls. Right now, it seems an early Fall is indicated in coming weeks, with deep troughs moving quickly from west to east in a zonal pattern. That really determines if any CV system will reach the US - right now the long term pattern favors recures and that's all right for those of us living in Florida...
Great thoughts except re-curves aren't so good when they happen in the NW Caribbean
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