ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Recon is finding TS force winds on the NE quadrant of the Karen, now lets see if indeed it still has a well defined closed circulation or not.

Those SFMR winds look highly suspicious, being about 15 kts higher than FL winds. However, the NHC will not be downgrading Karen in their next advisory.

[USVIKimmie]

Recon is finding TS force winds on the NE quadrant of the Karen, now lets see if indeed it still has a well defined closed circulation or not.

Those SFMR winds look highly suspicious, being about 15 kts higher than FL winds. However, the NHC will not be downgrading Karen in their next advisory.

They also just started their mission... give it time.

[NDG]

Recon finding a not so well defined COC.

[SFLcane]

Recon finding a not so well defined COC.

Yep close to falling part... not very impressive at all

[wxman57]

One big problem is that the winds NE of the center are not blowing in the right direction to indicate that they are circulating around a center. They look like straight-line winds in weak squalls. If Karen does maintain a weak LLC, then the fact that winds are not blowing inward toward the center means it won't be able to strengthen anytime soon, as Karen lacks low-level convergence. I doubt the NHC will downgrade Karen, as they don't like to downgrade any system that is approaching land. Can't fault them for that, I suppose, as their mission is to protect the people.

[TheStormExpert]

The same High that should shove Karen due west could also shear it more so than it already is later on.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176100552800907264




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176102887740624896

[TheStormExpert]

Joe B. has jokes!

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1176102556126404614

[GCANE]

The high SFMR appears to be in a strong cell, measuring a very respectable 45 mm/hr rain rate.

[NDG]

Still a closed circulation but much broader than yesterday evening.

F307 0312A KAREN HDOB 15 20190923
120900 1346N 06515W 8959 01057 //// +197 //// 254003 004 011 000 05
120930 1345N 06516W 9102 00919 0110 +204 +203 267004 005 016 000 01
121000 1344N 06517W 9222 00802 0106 +211 +208 246004 005 015 000 05
121030 1343N 06518W 9251 00773 0103 +215 +207 208005 005 /// /// 03
121100 1344N 06519W 9249 00774 0101 +215 +206 187004 005 010 000 03
121130 1345N 06521W 9250 00773 0101 +215 +206 171002 004 009 000 03
121200 1346N 06522W 9254 00769 0100 +215 +207 141001 002 011 000 03
121230 1346N 06524W 9253 00769 0100 +215 +209 149001 001 012 000 03
121300 1346N 06525W 9248 00773 0100 +215 +210 165001 001 011 000 00
121330 1345N 06527W 9251 00770 0100 +215 +212 127000 001 012 000 03
121400 1345N 06529W 9248 00773 0100 +215 +211 038001 001 012 000 00
121430 1345N 06530W 9250 00772 //// +212 //// 079001 002 011 000 01
121500 1345N 06532W 9249 00774 //// +210 //// 102002 002 011 000 01
121530 1344N 06534W 9250 00772 //// +210 //// 075002 002 012 000 01
121600 1344N 06535W 9250 00772 //// +210 //// 028004 005 010 000 01
121630 1344N 06537W 9250 00772 0101 +212 //// 037005 006 013 000 05
121700 1344N 06539W 9250 00772 0100 +215 +210 038006 007 012 000 00
121730 1343N 06540W 9254 00768 0101 +215 +212 031007 008 012 000 05
121800 1342N 06541W 9245 00774 //// +212 //// 007004 006 009 000 05
121830 1340N 06540W 9248 00772 0100 +213 +212 306003 004 009 000 05

[GCANE]

Tower firing just NE of the swirl is about to cover it.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing much of a circulation in the recon reports. There's an area of light and variable winds well southwest of where the center should be near 13.7N / 65.5W. Red crosshairs mark that spot of light and variable winds. Note that the NHC has the center 80 miles NE of the crosshairs.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176108278562131968




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176108285260455936

[wxman57]

I would wager that the NHC found a small southward-moving eddy and not the center of a TS. Like Dorian, Karen may have several small eddies rotating around. I'd focus more on the NHC's position as where a center has a better shot at forming.

[NDG]

I agree, I think the true LLC or eddy is on the NE side of the broad circulation closest to the deep convection firing up this morning. Also the pressure is a little lower in this area.

[Nuno]

[GCANE]

Obviously mid-level dry air is the issue.
It appears to be flowing north to south and over-riding moist air south of the CoC creating an inversion.
However, the mid-level vort is forcing moist air to over-ride the dry air east of the CoC creating a dry-line convection area with strong updraft which is firing off the tower with some lightning.

[GCANE]

Vorts are to the east of the swirl.
700mb and 850mb are closed, blowing the dry air to the south.
500mb is more elongated blowing the moist mid-level air to the west over-riding the lower dry air.

[TallyTracker]

Obviously mid-level dry air is the issue.
It appears to be flowing north to south and over-riding moist air south of the CoC creating an inversion.
However, the mid-level vort is forcing moist air to over-ride the dry air east of the CoC creating a dry-line convection area with strong updraft which is firing off the tower with some lightning.

https://i.imgur.com/NTumpDT.png

Just looking at the data from Recon and the satellite imagery, I don’t think Karen currently qualifies as a tropical cyclone. It lacks a well-defined center and organized convection in my opinion.

[Steve H.]

I actually think Karen is doing fine right now and although sheared, the day will get better for her. But the real test will be down the road where she is under the building ridge. I had trouble with a Karen in high school - eh, rejection issues But from the looks of her on satellite this morning there is still a circulation with a strong heartbeat that will not dissipate IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems to me Karen is still a borderline TS/TD, and given the likelihood shear will decrease with time over the next day or two, I doubt it will dissipate. Longer-term potential threat to the U.S. is also there, given model persistence in showing a sharp westerly turn over the last couple cycles. We'll see!