ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON is doubling down and is slower and SOUTH of 00z.

[jlauderdal]

ICON is doubling down and is slower and SOUTH of 00z.

that is one massive ridge from the east coast all the way out to colorado and beyond

[jlauderdal]

i dont see why the ICON is so slow, completely understand the reasoning with direction and intensity..next up GFS

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, the cards are dealt...it’s the GFS’ turn. Let’s see what kind of wager it makes or see if it folds.

[Kat5]

Is it me, or does the ICON looks slightly north of the 0z run?

[jlauderdal]

Is it me, or does the ICON looks slightly north of the 0z run?

no, its south and slow , have a cup of coffee

[STRiZZY]

Is it me, or does the ICON looks slightly north of the 0z run?

It's slightly slower and a touch south.

[typhoonty]

Is it me, or does the ICON looks slightly north of the 0z run?

It's you, the 06Z Icon is slightly south of the 00Z run. It's a small shift though, the difference of one county. (Broward v Miami Dade)

[KWT]

Quite the WSW dive from the ICON, though the system really does slow down by that point so upwelling would likely start to become more of an issue for it. Still wouldn't want a strong hurricane slowing down like that!

[SouthFLTropics]

i dont see why the ICON is so slow, completely understand the reasoning with direction and intensity..next up GFS

I agree...the speed makes no sense. Under a strong ridge like that it should be moving pretty briskly to the west.

[Kat5]

Is it me, or does the ICON looks slightly north of the 0z run?

It's slightly slower and a touch south.

Just had a second look and indeed it’s positioned a nudge south from the 0z. Stronger and more oriented ridge.

[Aric Dunn]

Does the nhc still use the super ensemble? Is that still around ? Lol

[Blown Away]

Prediction, 06z GFS begins to cave to the southern Model Consensus... Models are getting within 4 days of potential FL landfall and to have 250+ mile difference between the GFS/Euro is somewhat unusual. The other models support a landfall from @FTL to Cape Canaveral, GFS up near Jacksonville...

[USTropics]

Does the nhc still use the super ensemble? Is that still around ? Lol

They do:

Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.
Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48
hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and
then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to
the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward
across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the
official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but
it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major
hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to
maintain that status until it reaches land.

[typhoonty]

GFS already with significantly more E-W oriented ridging than 00Z, and is further south. Like last night with the 00Z OTS track, I suspected it was just a midnight lunch the GFS went out to.

[STRiZZY]

GFS a hair south 48hr out

[chris_fit]

GFS little S @ 48hrs

[Bocadude85]

Prediction, 06z GFS begins to cave to the southern Model Consensus... Models are getting within 4 days of potential FL landfall and to have 250+ mile difference between the GFS/Euro is somewhat unusual. The other models support a landfall from @FTL to Cape Canaveral, GFS up near Jacksonville...

The writing is on the wall so to speak, 6z already south of the 0z and showing a stronger ridge with a slightly different orientation

[Kat5]

Wouldn’t surprise me if the GFS begins to move south with Dorian’s trajectory. 06z NAM came in with a stronger ridge, and has the storm near the end with a hint of a southward motion.
Side question, does the global hawk still flies around? From my understanding it definitely helped provide additional resource data for the nested hurricane models.

[jlauderdal]

due west from 48h to 54 h