WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[TyphoonNara]

02W WUTIP 190223 1200 12.0N 142.8E WPAC 135 922

Wutip is now stronger than 2015's Higos...

STRONGEST FEBRUARY TYPHOON ON RECORD! WOW!

If Wutip can hold T7.0 till 18z, then it could become the first ever cat 5 typhoon in February.

[euro6208]

Up up up!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 FEB 2019 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 12:03:00 N Lon : 142:43:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 925.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +16.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 148nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.3 degrees

****************************************************

[TorSkk]

TY 1902 (Wutip)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 23 February 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 February>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N12°00' (12.0°)
E142°50' (142.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Gotta love AGW making new TC records faster

[euro6208]

02W WUTIP 190223 1200 12.0N 142.8E WPAC 135 922

Wutip is now stronger than 2015's Higos...

STRONGEST FEBRUARY TYPHOON ON RECORD! WOW!

If Wutip can hold T7.0 till 18z, then it could become the first ever cat 5 typhoon in February.

BEATING OUT TY "Higos" (240 kph) in 2015 and TY "Nancy" (220 kph) in 1970!

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1099275875135209472

[Hayabusa]

Mitag's cat 4 record was on March, Mitag formed in late February but Mitag didn't even attain typhoon status till March 1

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 231049
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
849 PM CHST SAT FEB 23 2019

...TYPHOON WUTIP MOVING NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFIED...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

A A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.6N...LONGITUDE 143.0E. THIS WAS ABOUT 180 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM...225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA...295 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN...305 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN...485 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN AND 530 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN.
STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST. STORM INTENSITY WAS 130 MPH...A CATEGORY
4 MAJOR TYPHOON.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON WUTIP IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 MAJOR TYPHOON AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWEST TO A CLOSEST APPROACH OF ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL GUAM TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES. EVACUATE YOUR HOME IF IT IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS
OR FLOODING.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS IF THE TRACK SHOULD CHANGE.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT AND
OTHER OCEAN-GOING VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SAIPAN AND TINIAN
COASTAL WATERS ARE UNDER A HAZARDOUS SEA WARNING AND IT IS STRONGLY
ADVISED THAT SMALL CRAFT AND OTHER OCEAN-GOING VESSELS REMAIN IN PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR
SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE WARY OF UNOFFICIAL SOURCES OF
INFORMATION. REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO
YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001-002-231900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-
849 PM CHST SAT FEB 23 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING. AVOID OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND SHOULD BE SECURED.
REMAIN IN SHELTER

&&

...WINDS...
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55
TO 60 MPH ARE PRESENT ACROSS GUAM...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 16 TO 20 FEET ARE OCCURRING...PRODUCING DANGEROUS
SURF AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS. SURF WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO INCLUDE WEST FACING REEFS SUNDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION
OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS OCCURRING ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORELINES
TONIGHT AND INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON WEST FACING SHORELINES IS
LIKELY SUNDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH ISLANDS. SEE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATEST
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR
LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

GUZ003-004-231900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-
849 PM CHST SAT FEB 23 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE YOUR PROPERTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

&&

...WINDS...
EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. IF WUTIP TURNS NORTHWARD EARLIER THAN WHAT IS
FORECASTED...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 13 TO 16 FEET ARE OCCURRING...PRODUCING DANGEROUS
SURF AS HIGH AS 20 FEET ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...THEN WEST FACING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. LOCAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

$$

...AGRIHAN AND PAGAN...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MADE ACCORDING TO YOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

...WINDS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD STILL OCCUR IF WUTIP
MAKES AN EARLIER NORTHWARD SHIFT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND COULD
REACH 15 FEET...ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
HAZARDOUS SURF IS LIKELY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES.
DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 18 FEET IS LIKELY.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

Guam really dodge a bullet in this historic storm.

[euro6208]

Mitag's cat 4 record was on March, Mitag formed in late February but Mitag didn't even attain typhoon status till March 1

But it's origins was in February so it's a February storm?

[Hayabusa]

Mitag's cat 4 record was on March, Mitag formed in late February but Mitag didn't even attain typhoon status till March 1

But it's origins was in February so it's a February storm?

That doesn't make Mitag literally a category 4 or 5 on the month of February though. Mitag's category 4 or 5 record belongs in March.

[1900hurricane]

With the CDO diameter waning some, Wutip might be peaking now. It'll be interesting to see if width requirements hold to 18Z.

[Hayabusa]

SATCON's estimate is a category 5

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 02231157
SATCON: MSLP = 924 hPa MSW = 138 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 134.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 127 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 230 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.5 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 925 hPa 135 knots Scene: CDO Date: FEB231300
CIMSS AMSU: 923 hPa 133 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 02231157
ATMS: 962.7 hPa 88.7 knots Date: 02230420
SSMIS: 962.7 hPa 88.7 knots Date: 02230420
CIRA ATMS: 955 hPa 99 knots Date:

[Nancy Smar]

WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 0, 120N, 1428E, 135, 0, ST, 34, NEQ, 165, 135, 135, 165, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 0, 120N, 1428E, 135, 0, ST, 50, NEQ, 85, 70, 70, 85, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 0, 120N, 1428E, 135, 0, ST, 64, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 3, 122N, 1426E, 135, 0, ST, 34, NEQ, 165, 135, 135, 165, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 3, 122N, 1426E, 135, 0, ST, 50, NEQ, 85, 70, 70, 85, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 3, 122N, 1426E, 135, 0, ST, 64, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 12, 129N, 1421E, 140, 0, ST, 34, NEQ, 170, 150, 100, 170, 0, 0, 0, 170, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 12, 129N, 1421E, 140, 0, ST, 50, NEQ, 80, 60, 50, 80, 0, 0, 0, 170, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 12, 129N, 1421E, 140, 0, ST, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 170, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 24, 136N, 1415E, 130, 0, ST, 34, NEQ, 160, 140, 90, 150, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 24, 136N, 1415E, 130, 0, ST, 50, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 70, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 24, 136N, 1415E, 130, 0, ST, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 36, 143N, 1410E, 120, 0, TY, 34, NEQ, 150, 130, 70, 120, 0, 0, 0, 145, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 36, 143N, 1410E, 120, 0, TY, 50, NEQ, 70, 50, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 145, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 36, 143N, 1410E, 120, 0, TY, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 145, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 48, 151N, 1407E, 110, 0, TY, 34, NEQ, 130, 110, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 48, 151N, 1407E, 110, 0, TY, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 48, 151N, 1407E, 110, 0, TY, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 72, 161N, 1408E, 80, 0, TY, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 40, 70, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 72, 161N, 1408E, 80, 0, TY, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 72, 161N, 1408E, 80, 0, TY, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 96, 166N, 1393E, 60, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 10, 50, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 96, 166N, 1393E, 60, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 15, 40, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,
WP, 02, 2019022312, 03, JTWC, 120, 177N, 1371E, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 65, 60, 70, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, SJB, 0, 0,

[Hayabusa]

JTWC expects it to become a cat 5?

[1900hurricane]

Worth noting that January and February are the only two months in the WPac without a category 5 since more reliable records began around 1970, although my unofficial reanalysis on Alice '79 puts it right on the 135-140 kt line (I keep wavering if I want to upgrade it or not).

[TyphoonNara]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 02231157
SATCON: MSLP = 924 hPa MSW = 138 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 134.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 127 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 230 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.5 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 925 hPa 135 knots Scene: CDO Date: FEB231300
CIMSS AMSU: 923 hPa 133 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 02231157
ATMS: 962.7 hPa 88.7 knots Date: 02230420
SSMIS: 962.7 hPa 88.7 knots Date: 02230420
CIRA ATMS: 955 hPa 99 knots Date:

[TyphoonNara]

Worth noting that January and February are the only two months in the WPac without a category 5, although my unofficial reanalysis on Alice '79 puts it right on the 135-140 kt line (I keep wavering if I want to upgrade it or not).

1958 Super Typhoon Ophelia was a January 140 knots Cat 5 though. However, these numbers can be unreliable.

[1900hurricane]

Worth noting that January and February are the only two months in the WPac without a category 5, although my unofficial reanalysis on Alice '79 puts it right on the 135-140 kt line (I keep wavering if I want to upgrade it or not).

1958 Super Typhoon Ophelia was a January 140 knots Cat 5 though. However, these numbers can be unreliable.

I edited my post to include my base period, with I had mistakenly left out (1970-now). Additionally, Hester '52-'53 is currently a January category 5 that occurred before my base period.

[cycloneye]

I am sure there will be plenty of analysis about why WUTIP intensified so strong despite not so favorable factors.