ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cpv17]

Are there any anticyclones near the gulf?

There’s an upper low over the NE Gulf moving west that will tug this into the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

Those are the 925 mb winds. Surface winds would likely be at least 20% less than that.

The 925 mb was dead on with Berry and Dorian.

well within a margin of error. 65 to 75 mph... either way its stronger by good deal with more of an upper high building over it.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1171947000402796544

[GCANE]

PV Ring is closing up.
UL Trough to the west just needs to move away a bit, which it will.
Looks like it found a sweet spot, in terms of shear, to fire off.

[DioBrando]

PV Ring is closing up.
UL Trough to the west just needs to move away a bit, which it will.
Looks like it found a sweet spot, in terms of shear, to fire off.


https://i.imgur.com/TcsnP0a.png

https://i.imgur.com/GvzzVit.png

https://i.imgur.com/WDW3UnK.png

What if this....
RI's?!?!

And shear drops off and this gets pulled into the gulf??

[SunnyThoughts]

Well one thing is for sure, looks like a few places are gonna see some rain. We sure could use some here in Santa Rosa County Fla ( One county east of Pensacola). Hopefully the major impact is just rain with not much wind to speak of when all is said and done.

[GCANE]

PV Ring is closing up.
UL Trough to the west just needs to move away a bit, which it will.
Looks like it found a sweet spot, in terms of shear, to fire off.


https://i.imgur.com/TcsnP0a.png

https://i.imgur.com/GvzzVit.png

https://i.imgur.com/WDW3UnK.png

What if this....
RI's?!?!

And shear drops off and this gets pulled into the gulf??

Systems with strong updrafts do push shear out of the way.
The air hits the tropopause and fans out in all directions.

Convection has been firing lightning virtually continuously.

[wxman57]

We initiated advisories this morning. I believe that the NHC needs development chances for the first 48 hrs to reach 70% to initiate PTC advisories for "Nine". Could be tomorrow. For now, we're close to the TVCN (not having seen it first). Pensacola with a weak TS. Track has a much better chance of shifting east than west. More time over Florida would mean weaker.

I suppose it’s wait and see for South FL then. What do you think about intensity possibilities on FL landfall?

For S. Florida - a disturbance, only increased rainfall. Strong SW wind shear up until it passes Florida. Well, alarm set for 4:30. Need to be at work by 5:30 through Monday. Good night.

[DioBrando]

PV Ring is closing up.
UL Trough to the west just needs to move away a bit, which it will.
Looks like it found a sweet spot, in terms of shear, to fire off.


https://i.imgur.com/TcsnP0a.png

https://i.imgur.com/GvzzVit.png

https://i.imgur.com/WDW3UnK.png

What if this....
RI's?!?!

And shear drops off and this gets pulled into the gulf??

Systems with strong updrafts do push shear out of the way.
The air hits the tropopause and fans out in all directions.

Convection has been firing lightning virtually continuously.

I mean... I'm now worried.... about the possibility this storm shifts further west...
If an anticyclone builds up...

I'm concerned about an RI event

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm concerned about an RI event

8 hours ago, you said "I just can't see this being named". That's quite a flip... not sure all that much has changed today.

[DioBrando]

I'm concerned about an RI event

8 hours ago, you said "I just can't see this being named". That's quite a flip... not sure all that much has changed today.

Was talking with someone today in real life who brought this idea onto the table.

[GCANE]

What if this....
RI's?!?!

And shear drops off and this gets pulled into the gulf??

Systems with strong updrafts do push shear out of the way.
The air hits the tropopause and fans out in all directions.

Convection has been firing lightning virtually continuously.

I mean... I'm now worried.... about the possibility this storm shifts further west...
If an anticyclone builds up...

I'm concerned about an RI event

The limiting factor I see is that this does not have a lot of TPW air to feed off.
At this point, only a weak feed thru the Windward passage.
Dorian had a lot more and was virtually drinking the juice out of the east GOM.
This one is cut off from the GOM.

[Frank P]

Well its appearance tonight on the IR is not very impressive and it sure looks like it’s taking its sweet time wherever it’s going... just an ugly robust wave att

[Aric Dunn]

That vort/circ i pointed out earlier at sunset just started to fire some deep convection.
Convection from cuba has collapsed and the sw inflow has likely resumed.

[Blown Away]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

With Irma Euro predicted 100 mph winds for Stuart, I didn’t believe it being Irma was on W coast of FL. NWS confirmed 100 mph gust in Stuart. Euro was dead on with the gust map just like the one you posted...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/floridastorms/status/1171965384020414464

[Blown Away]

Tomorrow SFL could move into TS Warning and possible Hurricane Watch based on Euro... Everyone has Dorian fatigue here...

[tgenius]

IF it does develop it’s gonna surprise a lot of people, even though should only be a TS at max (minus the new euro cat1 run into Melbourne) but no one is expecting this. It had a lil bit of Katrina forming where everyone in SFL basically saw it form midday one day and people were driving home in the wind and rain after being let go early.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Systems with strong updrafts do push shear out of the way.
The air hits the tropopause and fans out in all directions.

Convection has been firing lightning virtually continuously.

I mean... I'm now worried.... about the possibility this storm shifts further west...
If an anticyclone builds up...

I'm concerned about an RI event

The limiting factor I see is that this does not have a lot of TPW air to feed off.
At this point, only a weak feed thru the Windward passage.
Dorian had a lot more and was virtually drinking the juice out of the east GOM.
This one is cut off from the GOM.

What does TPW mean?

[Hurricaneman]

TPW means the amount of moisture in the atmosphere and it’s not as high as a tropical cyclone would like but is adequate enough for development