ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree with looking at the long term patterns. The pattern all summer has been for weak troughs off or near the east coast, yet just 2-3 days ago the models were showing a pattern change and supposed “dangerous” set up for the southern US that was getting hyped up. And as you said looking a little further ahead the pattern is even more progressive with fall setting in. Gfs has us in the 70’s next weekend, when we’ve been in the mid to upper 90’s since Dorian left the Bahamas. The hype should be excitement for fall fast approaching cooling the south down and the rain chances finally coming back.

[Senobia]

Has anyone seen this ensemble and if so, what are your thoughts about it?

[tolakram]

REMINDER

this is not the discussion thread, it's the model thread. If your post is not about a model run or related it will probably be removed.

[ronjon]

CMC and UKMET operational runs at 00z are well east of their ensemble means - ensemble mean for UKMET similar to current TVCN and ensemble mean for CMC right through central Florida on a NW path toward Tallahasee.

[SoupBone]

I agree with looking at the long term patterns. The pattern all summer has been for weak troughs off or near the east coast, yet just 2-3 days ago the models were showing a pattern change and supposed “dangerous” set up for the southern US that was getting hyped up. And as you said looking a little further ahead the pattern is even more progressive with fall setting in. Gfs has us in the 70’s next weekend, when we’ve been in the mid to upper 90’s since Dorian left the Bahamas. The hype should be excitement for fall fast approaching cooling the south down and the rain chances finally coming back.

If I recall, pre-season long term modeling was showing that the greatest risk this season would be the East Coast. Pretty remarkable so far.

[ronjon]

Looks like 12z NAM in the GFS camp for 95L. I know the usual caveats about using NAM for tropics - but it does show pretty stout 500 mb ridging building into north Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019091212&fh=54

[Steve]

I agree with looking at the long term patterns. The pattern all summer has been for weak troughs off or near the east coast, yet just 2-3 days ago the models were showing a pattern change and supposed “dangerous” set up for the southern US that was getting hyped up. And as you said looking a little further ahead the pattern is even more progressive with fall setting in. Gfs has us in the 70’s next weekend, when we’ve been in the mid to upper 90’s since Dorian left the Bahamas. The hype should be excitement for fall fast approaching cooling the south down and the rain chances finally coming back.

If I recall, pre-season long term modeling was showing that the greatest risk this season would be the East Coast. Pretty remarkable so far.

Mike's one of my favorite posters, but he'll throw cold water on the season every year. He is right though this time in that the pattern has been progressive which seems to be more typical for El Ninos (might still have some influence even though we're in neutral conditions). I'm not buying 70's in SELA unless it's for a day or two (we did actually have some fronts come through in August which was atypical for us). But don't forget that in order for the early fall storms to come up, you have to have a couple of cold highs come down and also need amplification to get that rolling. Not sure if the Gulf is out of the woods yet this year, but I'd tend to think we'll see 2 or 3 more named storms though I wouldn't begin to be able to guess what they might be or where. I'll bet anyone any reasonable amount of money that there are 2 more Gulf named storms. Anyone willing to give me 2:1 odds on 3 named storms, I'll take that too.
So if anyone is hungry for some easy money, look my way
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Model thread

NAM - 12z 12km pulls the massive shift back west. It still mulls around south Florida but instead of reforming farther up the coast and moving north, it kicks into the Gulf and appears to be heading for the western panhandle.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91212&fh=0

[Michele B]

I laugh when people up north sound disappointed - maybe they should move here and suffer through a hurricane aftermath that usually lasts until December and beyond...

P.S. The state was wounded by Charley, Frances, and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005 and Irma 2 years ago with the entire citrus crop ruined and the Keys communities suffering serious damage along with many SW and NE Florida homes flooded, and of course extreme Michael last year, so I don't see the "Florida shield" they moan about and I've lived here for 43 years - unless they prefer we suffer every summer for the entertainment of Internet trolls...

P.P.S. Many rely on the models too much - instead they should look towards the long range patterns that often can determine hurricane landfalls. Right now, it seems an early Fall is indicated in coming weeks, with deep troughs moving quickly from west to east in a zonal pattern. That really determines if any CV system will reach the US - right now the long term pattern favors recurves and that's all right for those of us living in Florida...

Ain’t it the truth!!

It’s easy to pontificate on how strong this one is or isn’t going to get, or how bad the damage will be...

It’s a whole other thing to have to prepare, put out money you weren’t budgeted for to stock on stuff you’d used cause you HOPED th season was behind you...

So it’s not just the aftermath- there’s plenty of stress associated with the “before...”

[N2FSU]

Yep, 12z NAM holds on to strong ridging


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[LarryWx]

It appears to me like the 0Z consensus MAY turn out to be the furthest east because the 6Z Euro/EPS/ICON came back west a tad and the 12Z ICON is perhaps a tad west of the 6Z early in the run.

[MississippiWx]

Models seem pretty consistent on a weakness opening up east of Florida. It looks very similar to when Dorian was in the area. Florida/Georgia/Carolinas should keep a wary eye, of course.

What I think we need to watch for on the modeling is a ridge building back in over the top after this shortwave moves by to the north. This is a pretty progressive pattern. The longer it takes to move north, the more chance a ridge has to build back in and block a path OTS.

[ronjon]

3 km NAM off of Tampa in 60 hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019091212&fh=0

[chaser1]

Not suggesting that the GFS and NAM have the wrong idea but these solutions suggest even slower tropical cyclone development or non at all (during the next 48 hours) as the broad area moves generally westward across South Florida while the displaced mid level vorticity remains tilted more to the N.E. of any weak LLC crossing the Southern part of the state. While this outcome could occur and result in increased concern for the North Gulf coastline or Panhandle area, it just seems to me that there's just enough slow organization presently occurring with 95L that will result in a weak circulation to try and tighten up by Saturday somewhere north of Andros. At that point however I'd guess it would feel a weakness in the Tennessee Valley ridge and the strengthening SSE flow from building mid level heights to it's east (south and west of Bermuda). At that point I'd imagine that we'd either see a sloppy T.D. or weak T.S. landfall north of W. Palm or perhaps a stronger T.S. come ashore further north (or not even at all).

Simply put, I think the primary differences between the GFS/NAM verses other model solutions is the extent of "somewhat" greater development and organization that will occur with 95L during the upcoming 36 hours. EURO and ICON seems to imply that at least a weak COC will coalesce near/over the N.W. Bahamas. This seems to fit within this years' pattern.

[bamajammer4eva]

Icon looks a lot like a baby skeleton of Dorian/Fernand.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS still with an Eastern GoM solution, someone is going to bust big time here!

[hohnywx]

ICON ends its run with a formidable storm off the NC coast

[Hurricaneman]

The American models seem to be on their own while every other model recurves up the east coast

[Steve]

GFS still looks weak and still looks headed for Bay/Walton Co,. FL
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[Evil Jeremy]

12Z UKMET is essentially unchanged. Full recurve.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 25.6N 76.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 25.6N 76.6W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 26.7N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 28.3N 79.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2019 29.7N 79.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 30.8N 79.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 31.7N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 32.2N 77.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 32.7N 76.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 33.1N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 33.5N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS still looks weak and still looks headed for Bay/Walton Co,. FL
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

GFS will join the other models orrrrrrr

The other models will nudge slightly west yet.