Steve wrote:They don’t. My point is that if it’s a major, it’s not particularly likely that it would follow the advisory plots at their current advisory intensity forecast. I also agree with those who say they want a couple more runs before honing in on FL landfall. They have access to early cycle stuff way before we all do, so perhaps what’s available to them so far hasn’t resulted in specific track confidence for them to have changed their cone or advisory plots.<— was to blinhart. Posts are moving fast
I see them straddling two potential scenarios by the competing models. One has a strengthening ridge that pushes Dorian across the state into GOM and the second has a weaker ridge that starts a stall/recurve that's difficult to accurately predict 5 days out. Instead they straddled the two model groups in the middle with the TVCN and put the whole state in the cone for a major on a path that's not likely to happen out of no better option.
The result I fear is that someone south or north may be in for something much worse than they expect from concentrating on the 'line' nobody is supposed to concentrate on but everybody does. I don't envy the NHC position given the current uncertainty but we'll have to see how this plays out. Let's hope the major models somehow resolve some consistency overnight because tomorrow is starting to be last call for some evacuations - especially South Florida.
