ATL: DORIAN - Models

[pgoss11]

More 0Z Euro ensemble members showing a recurve before hitting the SE coast than yesterday. All of them are slower members; the ridge has time to break down: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... 0829074143

That’s very interesting. So the slower the storm to arrive to the coast the increasing probability of a recurve scenario.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Full wind shield wiper effect. Now that the EPS ensembles started showing the possibility of Dorian entirely missing Florida, most of the 06z guidance shifted south.

[USTropics]

HWRF simulated IR shows how expansive the wind field can become for Dorian as it traverses over very warm WATL waters:

[ObsessedMiami]

Forgive me if its been discussed, but what is causing that WSW dip several of the models display just prior to landfall? The edging downward of the ridge? And the other recurving runs have the ridge backing off? Just trying to place these runs in context

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 6z Euro yet? Can you tease us a little bit with what it looks like compared to the 00z?

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro begins the left turn at 30 hours. A little ahead of 00z at about 24.5 n

[chris_fit]

6z euro begins the left turn at 30 hours. A little ahead of 00z at about 24.5 n

Thanks. After the 00Z ensembles, curious if we will see a N shift on the ensemble mean. The 00Z was a massive shift and non towards the GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

By 48 hrs its at 25.2 north and heading wnw

[psyclone]

It seems like the more it slows down the greater the possibility of a recurve...something that was really not on the table yesterday. I'm liking this option being tossed into the mix

[Aric Dunn]

Due west at 54 hours. At 25.5 n.

[caneman]

By 48 hrs its at 25.2 north and heading wnw

How does forward speed look?

[boca]

Do we have access to the 6z euro?

[Emmett_Brown]

Maybe it's just me, but I recall that ensemble members spread out like this during recent storms after the extra atmospheric upper air samplings from flights were input into the models... it often seems to increase the spread rather than decrease it! As several have mentioned, today's ensemble track spread is all about timing... how fast does Dorian move before the ridge has time to break down?

[Aric Dunn]

66 hours it dips sw.. well east of the bahamas..

Wobbles really

[chris_fit]

Thanks Aric - keep em comin'

[AutoPenalti]

What the hell is the operational doing...? That’s a nice wobbling SW dip. Might stall here.

[SFLcane]

Indeed Aric...keep the euro updates coming.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 06 Ukmet? Does it even run then?

[Aric Dunn]

Then actual wsw at 78 hows.. it is slower.

[USTropics]

Do we have access to the 6z euro?

You can get it at http://weather.us and http://weathermodels.com, both require a subscription to access it.