ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

06z concludes with a WSW turn at the end of the run.

[ronjon]

The 06z Euro is a full degree east on longitude than 0z and south by almost as much on latitude. If this slowing trend continues, the storm might stay off the east coast...

[StormingB81]

The euro keeps sending it more south so even if the ridge breaks down it's going to be difficult to escape a landfall. What a nailbiter.

I hope it doesn't ride the whole coast...evacuations would be even messier and could mean more winds all up the coast!

Whoa That is a possibly scary setup for the west coast of florida

Well I was thinking east coast riding Florida than all the way up to Carolina's...That would be very worst case scenario

[USTropics]

The reason for the SW dip can be easier seen on the 00z high-res ECMWF images (https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/mi ... 0300z.html). The periphery of the southwestern edge of the ridge really digs in:



Meanwhile, same time frame as GFS, the periphery is more rounded, with a more WNW flow:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I hope it doesn't ride the whole coast...evacuations would be even messier and could mean more winds all up the coast!

Whoa That is a possibly scary setup for the west coast of florida

Well I was thinking east coast riding Florida than all the way up to Carolina's...That would be very worst case scenario

Well it looks like it may wanna dip through the florida straight and head up to the panhandle

[NDG]

If the trend by the Euro continuing to slow down continues will definitely be good news for it to head north before reaching the SE FL Coast.

[Weatherboy1]

I have a feeling gfs corrects it self at 12z or tonight or euro does

06z GFS already corrected itself from the 00z run with a shift south to the cape - I'd expect a more southern approach on the 12z toward maybe Melbourne - perhaps Euro will go to Vero Beach - and then we'd have pretty good consensus 4 days out.

Yes, that was a pretty notable shift toward the consensus of several other models. If it continues at the 12z cycle, think it really raises the risk to east central/south FL

[chris_fit]

06z GFS Ens - Many still go into the Gulf - Only 3 recurves

[supercane4867]

The SW dip that euro is depicting actually makes meteorological sense. Many TCs in the past have went southwesterly before turning north

[chris_fit]

The SW dip that euro is depicting actually makes meteorological sense. Many TCs in the past have went southwesterly before turning north

On the Contrary, many have gone into the Gulf after a WSW movement. I think the slowndown/stall is more significant new trend in the models rather than the WSW movement.

[toad strangler]

It's amazing reading the 180 degree different perceptions many of us have on this slow down.

[WeatherEmperor]

It's amazing reading the 180 degree different perceptions many of us have on this slow down.

I agree. It makes my head spin


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[drewschmaltz]

It's amazing reading the 180 degree different perceptions many of us have on this slow down.

It's amazing reading the 180 degree different perceptions many of the models have on this slow down.

[stormlover2013]

Could miss the weakness and end in gulf

[SFLcane]

Growing consensus this could be a cat 4 on approach to FL.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's amazing reading the 180 degree different perceptions many of us have on this slow down.

It helps when you have such large disagreement in the ensembles four days out

[ronjon]

Both the GFS and ECM ensembles are not showing any signs of the system staying off the coast - in fact, the opposite with many still taking Dorian to the GOM.

[p1nheadlarry]

Could miss the weakness and end in gulf

Might depend on just how weak the steering becomes and the storm's size and intensity if it makes landfall.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Have the feeling we are going to see the GFS cave to the more southerly solution in either 12 or 18z. Last few runs have shown signs of a correction southward.

[Jonny]

Looks like things have become even more uncertain.

Some say it'll skip the gulf while others still consider the possibility.