ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I’m still on the no development train.

No development as in... further development ? It’s already a TS

[eastcoastFL]

So basically it's harder for models to get a better grasp on smaller storms not simply due to their size, but because of possible fluctuations of intensity that can occur much faster than with larger storms? That would make sense along with less shear needed to RIP up a smaller storm vs a larger one. This is why I ask

Yah with these little storms they can hit warm waters and low shear and just blow up in intensity. At that same time they can hit a hostile environment and just go poof.

[tiger_deF]

As of right now during Dmin it appears to be struggling, the already small area of cloud cover has decreased and the convection is very warm

[AutoPenalti]

I’m still on the no development train.

No development as in... further development ? It’s already a TS

No further development.

[abajan]

I don't know if it's just an illusion, but latest satellite imagery seems to indicate it's already made the predicted WNW turn.

[AtlanticWind]

I don't know if it's just an illusion, but latest satellite imagery seems to indicate it's already made the predicted WNW turn.

Don't know if true WNW yet, but I agree it seems to be gaining lattitude

[Highteeld]

I don't know if it's just an illusion, but latest satellite imagery seems to indicate it's already made the predicted WNW turn.

05L DORIAN 190825 0600 10.9N 51.0W ATL 35 1008
05L DORIAN 190825 0000 10.8N 49.9W ATL 35 1008
05L DORIAN 190824 1800 10.6N 48.7W ATL 35 1008
05L DORIAN 190824 1200 10.4N 47.5W ATL 30 1010
05L DORIAN 190824 0600 10.3N 46.4W ATL 25 1011
05L DORIAN 190824 0000 10.2N 45.3W ATL 25 1012
05L DORIAN 190823 1800 10.0N 43.5W ATL 25 1012
05L DORIAN 190823 1200 9.8N 41.7W ATL 25 1012
05L DORIAN 190823 0600 9.6N 40.4W ATL 20 1012
05L DORIAN 190823 0000 9.5N 39.0W ATL 20 1009
05L DORIAN 190822 1800 9.5N 37.3W ATL 15 1009
05L DORIAN 190822 1200 9.5N 35.9W ATL 15 1009

[Kingarabian]

I believe it was Derek Ort's thesis that discussed how dry air is mainly an issue when shear is present. Shear is the main issue at the moment, if and when it lets up we'll see what happens.

Correct. Seen this on many occasions in the EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

A curved band formed in the past few hours and in regular cases would mean some sort of RI is in the cards. But due to the dry air, the convective band has a broken appearance.


Still needs to chug out the dry air.

[TheStormExpert]

A slow but steady trend downward in the intensity forecast.

[Highteeld]

Just a bunch of blobs right now

[NDG]

Circulation is still healthy but still some slight easterly shear and some dry air intrusion from the east in the mid levels could be going against it at least at this moment.

[SFLcane]

Let the back peddling begin.. On the next advisory they will probably just keep it as a TS.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1165598186490273798

[TheStormExpert]

Dorian may have already peaked.

 https://twitter.com/drewitzwx/status/1165582994800828416

[wxman57]

Models are trending farther south with the track - into even stronger wind shear across the eastern Caribbean. I don't think it will survive for long past the Lesser Antilles. NHC will continue to lower the predicted intensity below hurricane strength today. May peak at 40-45 kts.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1165600692188459009

[wxman57]

Big change in the new HWRF - peak wind 46 kts No more hurricane. I have it peaking at 49 kts and dissipating before reaching the DR.

[Highteeld]

[Aric Dunn]

Easterly shear will be slacking off later today and for a good 12 to 24 hours before the SW shear starts is when this will likely ramp up.