WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Kammuri’s center is fully embedded within a blob of CDG. This might help protect the core a bit and enable the rebuilding of the eyewall.

[Highteeld]

Looks disorganized right now. Marginal typhoon

[1900hurricane]

I'd call it a CCC.

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

21Z position remains the same as 18Z

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 28 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 November>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
? 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
? 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 28 November 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 28 November>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
? 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
? 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Crazy to see such strong agreement between EPS members on an intense solution. All except for two individual EPS members call for a minimum pressure of at least 951 mb.

[aspen]

I have a really bad feeling about Kammuri. Everything so far is pointing towards a powerful and perhaps catastrophic storm.

Strong model and ensemble agreement on an intense Philippines landfall? Check.

Unusually aggressive Euro runs with Hagibis-like intensity estimates? Check.

High SSTs throughout its track? Check.

A blob of high OHC it’ll pass through 36-48 hours before landfall? Check.

Improving wind patterns and outflow closer to landfall? Check.

The only thing against Kammuri at this point is the limit on intensification from modest shear and dry air, but that is expected to wane within the next few days and likely allow the system to rapidly intensify. It seems like almost everything is going to work in its favor to make it go nuclear.

[Hayabusa]

Better savor that first ohc meal soon

[aspen]

Better savor that first ohc meal soon

https://i.imgur.com/tzYF7Vn.gif

Shear/dry air intrusion will probably have relaxed some by 36 hrs once it’s within the warmest part of the first OHC hot spot, allowing it to intensify before reaching slightly cooler waters. Once it gets to the second hot spot, it’ll probably go nuclear.

[mrbagyo]

The almost due west track towards Cam Norte, Quezon, Metro Manila shown by the models is quite similar to the track of two notable November Storms - Patsy -70 and Angela 95.
Patsy is still the wind recordholder in Manila.

[Hayabusa]

Down to 965 mb and JMA repositioned to JTWC's

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 29 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 29 November>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N14°05' (14.1°)
E138°00' (138.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

[Highteeld]

JMA has a higher 10 minute wind speed than the JTWC does 1 minute XD

[Highteeld]

18z Euro @ hour 81/peak

[mrbagyo]

Mixed bag of sensors.
Some are up, some are down, some are correct and pp
some are inaccurate / miscalibrated.

[Highteeld]

[aspen]

While all global models show the same basic track, they differ in Kammuri’s exact latitude at 125-130 E, which will determine whether or not it gets within the warmest of the hot spot just east of the Philippines. The GFS, Euro, and CMC keep it at 13.5-13.8 N — right within the patch of the highest OHC. Meanwhile, the NAVGEM is the furthest north at 15 N, and the ICON is around 14.5 N; both are slightly outside the warmest parts of the hot spot.

This will probably influence how strong Kammuri gets and how bad the landfall will be. So far, the models generally support a pass through the warmest waters in its whole track, but that could easily change with a northward shift of just a few tenths of a degree.

[Hayabusa]

Down to 70

29W KAMMURI 191129 0000 14.6N 138.2E WPAC 70 979

[dexterlabio]

With that CCC pattern I am reminded of Mirinae in 2009. You'd think it was intensifying due to large area of deep convection but it was actually badly sheared.

[aspen]

JTWC now only calls for a Cat 3 at peak.

[1900hurricane]

Despite the obvious struggles with shear and dry air, the circulation still appears quite vigorous.