ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

So we've progressed from a Dorian that would have turned north into the weakness left by Erin if it was moving quicker, to a Dorian held under the ridge by moving at a normal speed, now to a Dorian that would turn north by moving so slow another weakness opens up. And still, no one really has a confident clue how this will play out.

[fllawyer]

Recon reports EWRC underway.

G. Inner Eye Diameter: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

Do you have a link to the real-time recon data?

[GCANE]

[TallyTracker]

Is there any idea how large Dorian is expected to be by the time it reaches Florida?

[GCANE]

Recon reports EWRC underway.

G. Inner Eye Diameter: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

Do you have a link to the real-time recon data?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... age=vortex

[Buck]

Is there any idea how large Dorian is expected to be by the time it reaches Florida?

No, not really.

[northjaxpro]

I expect Dorian to look like Frances when approaching. Same size, eye width, slightly stronger though.

And, like Frances, this is looking to be a slow moving, massive rain dump.

Yes, no doubt unfortunately we are potentially looking at serious flooding rains . Worriedabut this along with storm surge in the rivers ((Especially Saint Johns River)

[SouthFLTropics]

In all of my years going through storms I have never left for one. We are leaving for this one. The fact that it is a 4 day holiday weekend makes it a little easier of a decision. Also, the fact that I can now load up a lot of what we have into our fifth wheel and take it with us. Going to button up the house later this evening, hook up the trailer and head out tonight. I'm gonna watch this one on TV.

[northjaxpro]

I expect Dorian to look like Frances when approaching. Same size, eye width, slightly stronger though.

And, like Frances, this is looking to be a slow moving, massive rain dump.

Yes, no doubt unfortunately we are potentially looking at serious flooding rains . I am worried about this, along with storm surge in the rivers ((Especially Saint Johns River)

[Evil Jeremy]

11am landfall point somewhere between Vero and Palm Bay. Closer to Vero.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon reports EWRC underway.

G. Inner Eye Diameter: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

Do you have a link to the real-time recon data?

I posted the actual microwave of the EWRC a couple of pages back

[Evil Jeremy]

From the discussion:

"The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.
It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread
of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is
still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify
where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur."

"The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur."

[SconnieCane]

So we've progressed from a Dorian that would have turned north into the weakness left by Erin if it was moving quicker, to a Dorian held under the ridge by moving at a normal speed, now to a Dorian that would turn north by moving so slow another weakness opens up. And still, no one really has a confident clue how this will play out.

While in theory I know that weather prediction models have improved dramatically over the last 20-25 or so years, it rarely feels that way in practice. It seems with every suite of model runs there is a new "consensus" wildly different from the previous. Maybe it's because 20 years ago, the limitations were such that no one bothered even trying to put out public forecasts for things like severe weather and tropical cyclones beyond five days, and even those were rare with most being limited to three days.

That was part of the draw for me tracking these things from afar (where I'm not trying to figure how to time my supply/fuel run, whether or not I need to board up my house, etc), there was always an element of mystery to where they would go beyond the "cone" on the map. So many times, storms like Floyd for example would seem to be trucking inexorably west-northwest toward Florida, only to hook hard to the right and hit the Outer Banks or go out to sea. Sometimes they would pull weird loop-de-loops like Jeanne. Every storm seems to have at least one curveball up its sleeve. Extreme, seemingly unlikely outcomes are sometimes well modeled far in advance (Sandy's left hook, Harvey's stall and rainfall) and others still come as a relative surprise (Michael's intensity).

[flamingosun]

Port Canaveral is now at Port Condition Whiskey

From the Port Canaveral Website https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Rec ... to-Hurrica :

The U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port (COTP) has set hurricane condition "WHISKEY" for Port Canaveral.

Sustained gale force winds are predicted within 72 hours. Port Canaveral is currently at full operations but anticipates limited operations to follow. Please ensure your businesses and homes are clear of any debris that may become projectiles in the wind.

If you live in an evacuation zone, a mobile or manufactured home, or in a flood prone area, or you simply do not feel safe, please evacuate in a timely manner; don't wait and don't forget to take your disaster supply kit.

Please monitor Port Canaveral and https://twitter.com/BrevardEOC and the Port Status Hotline at 321-394-3411 for updates.

[flamingosun]

Official meanings of the various port conditions:

Port conditions are set by a Coast Guard captain of the port and apply to the official’s entire area of responsibility. The condition statuses are as follows:

Whiskey: Set when gale force winds are expected to arrive at the port within 72 hours. Port remains open to all commercial traffic, but oceangoing ships and barges must report their intention to remain in port or depart. If they are departing, they must do so within 12 hours of gale-force winds.

X-Ray: Gale force winds are expected within 48 hours. The rules are similar to port condition Whiskey.

Yankee: Gale force winds predicted within 24 hours. Vessels seeking to depart must arrange immediate departure. Cargo operations must cease with 18 kilometre per hour (kph) winds. Transfer hoses must be disconnected with 22 kph winds. Ships seeking to arrive in port should seek an alternate destination.

Zulu: Gale force winds within 12 hours. The port is closed.

[StormingB81]

SO latest forecast has it coming on maybe as a Cat 4. I live near Cocoa Beach 10 miles from the coast....That makes me rethink what I want to do....

[Captkeith2]

Both the Euro and GFS show a sharp turn north after landfall. Is that the possible "developing weakness" in the ridge that forecaster Brown refers to in the 1100 Forecast Discussion ? If so then if the storm slows down or the ridge weakens early it's a whole new game...........

[ObsessedMiami]

So we've progressed from a Dorian that would have turned north into the weakness left by Erin if it was moving quicker, to a Dorian held under the ridge by moving at a normal speed, now to a Dorian that would turn north by moving so slow another weakness opens up. And still, no one really has a confident clue how this will play out.

While in theory I know that weather prediction models have improved dramatically over the last 20-25 or so years, it rarely feels that way in practice. It seems with every suite of model runs there is a new "consensus" wildly different from the previous. Maybe it's because 20 years ago, the limitations were such that no one bothered even trying to put out public forecasts for things like severe weather and tropical cyclones beyond five days, and even those were rare with most being limited to three days.

The thing that is interesting to me is how model watching is an example of our modern instant internet gratification mindset. We are trained to want more information faster and believe each new data set holds the key to understanding. So we gorge on every single model run thinking that all that overload of information will gives us THE ANSWER and allow us TO KNOW before anyone else. So people put instant value on information that is best digested over time. But we want to know NOW. And it frustrates us. This is why you see literally back to back posts on here, one person saying it looks ragged and another saying its clearly intensifying. The clearest trends in Dorian watching occur in the people, not the data.

Just an observation and I am mostly analyzing myself.

[Evil Jeremy]

So we've progressed from a Dorian that would have turned north into the weakness left by Erin if it was moving quicker, to a Dorian held under the ridge by moving at a normal speed, now to a Dorian that would turn north by moving so slow another weakness opens up. And still, no one really has a confident clue how this will play out.

While in theory I know that weather prediction models have improved dramatically over the last 20-25 or so years, it rarely feels that way in practice. It seems with every suite of model runs there is a new "consensus" wildly different from the previous. Maybe it's because 20 years ago, the limitations were such that no one bothered even trying to put out public forecasts for things like severe weather and tropical cyclones beyond five days, and even those were rare with most being limited to three days.

The thing that is interesting to me is how model watching is an example of our modern instant internet gratification mindset. We are trained to want more information faster and believe each new data set holds the key to understanding. So we gorge on every single model run thinking that all that overload of information will gives us THE ANSWER and allow us TO KNOW before anyone else. So people put instant value on information that is best digested over time. But we want to know NOW. And it frustrates us. This is why you see literally back to back posts on here, one person saying it looks ragged and another saying its clearly intensifying. The clearest trends in Dorian watching occur in the people, not the data.

Just an observation and I am mostly analyzing myself.

There's never anything wrong with more data, more information. Get as much of it as you can.

Making rash, immediate judgements based on said data is a different issue.

[SouthFLTropics]

So we've progressed from a Dorian that would have turned north into the weakness left by Erin if it was moving quicker, to a Dorian held under the ridge by moving at a normal speed, now to a Dorian that would turn north by moving so slow another weakness opens up. And still, no one really has a confident clue how this will play out.

While in theory I know that weather prediction models have improved dramatically over the last 20-25 or so years, it rarely feels that way in practice. It seems with every suite of model runs there is a new "consensus" wildly different from the previous. Maybe it's because 20 years ago, the limitations were such that no one bothered even trying to put out public forecasts for things like severe weather and tropical cyclones beyond five days, and even those were rare with most being limited to three days.

The thing that is interesting to me is how model watching is an example of our modern instant internet gratification mindset. We are trained to want more information faster and believe each new data set holds the key to understanding. So we gorge on every single model run thinking that all that overload of information will gives us THE ANSWER and allow us TO KNOW before anyone else. So people put instant value on information that is best digested over time. But we want to know NOW. And it frustrates us. This is why you see literally back to back posts on here, one person saying it looks ragged and another saying its clearly intensifying. The clearest trends in Dorian watching occur in the people, not the data.

Just an observation and I am mostly analyzing myself.

This is a very acute Observation. I think you may have some OCD Obsessed! Stay safe out there.