ObsessedMiami wrote:SconnieCane wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:So we've progressed from a Dorian that would have turned north into the weakness left by Erin if it was moving quicker, to a Dorian held under the ridge by moving at a normal speed, now to a Dorian that would turn north by moving so slow another weakness opens up. And still, no one really has a confident clue how this will play out.
While in theory I know that weather prediction models have improved dramatically over the last 20-25 or so years, it rarely feels that way in practice. It seems with every suite of model runs there is a new "consensus" wildly different from the previous. Maybe it's because 20 years ago, the limitations were such that no one bothered even trying to put out public forecasts for things like severe weather and tropical cyclones beyond five days, and even those were rare with most being limited to three days.
The thing that is interesting to me is how model watching is an example of our modern instant internet gratification mindset. We are trained to want more information faster and believe each new data set holds the key to understanding. So we gorge on every single model run thinking that all that overload of information will gives us THE ANSWER and allow us TO KNOW before anyone else. So people put instant value on information that is best digested over time. But we want to know NOW. And it frustrates us. This is why you see literally back to back posts on here, one person saying it looks ragged and another saying its clearly intensifying. The clearest trends in Dorian watching occur in the people, not the data.
Just an observation and I am mostly analyzing myself.
Yeah, and then you get people rooting for and following one particular model they like for whatever reason, as if the model is a football team that cares about winning out over its competitors.
