ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SoupBone]

The windshield wiper effect is very real. No one should be surprised. It'll probably swing back again next run.

I'm half expecting the euro to now start heading north. I hate the idea of a landfall but it will be best if the models come into better agreement so people can finalize plans and get the heck out of the way.

No doubt, living on the coast, we've all been there. I really hope that the GFS and Euro start some agreement as well.

[beachman80]

The windshield wiper effect is very real. No one should be surprised. It'll probably swing back again next run.

I'm half expecting the euro to now start heading north. I hate the idea of a landfall but it will be best if the models come into better agreement so people can finalize plans and get the heck out of the way.

Actually thinking the opposite. I think it may move south. It seems to have been moving along the same line of thjning as the UKMET which has stayed south.

[p1nheadlarry]

I'm curious. The pressure drops to 981 by 30 hours on the 12Z GFS. Then it stays there and even raises 1mb over the next 18 hours - then continues lower somewhat rapidly. Is that mid-level dry air? Shear? ERC? I think a few expected Dorian to deepen over night. But, the comments about PR disrupting the feeder along with a little dry air was enough to hold him down. What do you think it is at hour 30 - 48 that keeps a lid on it?

Could be upper level shear, storm moves west but northeasterly steering

[tolakram]

[beachman80]

By the way, if you’re on the Fla west coast, I would not ignore this. The models would not have to tweak all that much for this to get into southeastern gulf, crawls bit and drift north or NNW. The ICON and NAVGEM very nearly do this. The Euro did this on Tuesday. The west coast is not out of the woods at all from a direct hit possibility or a scraping.

[AJC3]

On behalf of the board mods and admins, this is probably a good time to remind everyone that because of how hectic the next 3-4 days promise to be in here, try and remember to keep your posts and replies civil.

When someone posts an incorrect observation or piece of information, or an opinion that's ill-founded or has none at all, keep your emotions in check and politely correct them. When you disagree on an opinion, point out why, but in a civil manner.

It's fine to disagree, but (to quote Jules Winnfield) let's all try to be a bunch of little Fonzie's...and be cool about it. Think twice before you hit "submit" button.

Also, try and keep the chit chat posts of few words to a minimum. We've had to delete a number of one word WOW/OMG type posts over the past few days.

Finally, if you see a post that you feel violates board rules, report it, and one of the staff will address it.

*This is directed at noone in particular and everyone in general. Thanks. Carry on, stay safe, and let's sit back and see how the next few days evolve. It should be a wild ride.

[eastcoastFL]

Not Aric, but that’s what my feeling was with the 6z models. Recurve is still a good possibility, but the timing (especially but unfortunately) of it happening before Florida was off, too slow of speed.

There's no sweeping trough to recurve this thing. It'll likely just get stuck and wait for the ridge to rebuild. Worst case scenario is that he gets stuck just inland.

This is true, but there’s the possibility that with the weak steering currents, a slow direction to the north or northwest could occur.

I think the models showing a SW to WSW movement are picking up the weak steering currents and the chance the storm could just meander around for a while before something let’s up.

I agree. I think its just going to drift around for a bit until something pulls it north or pushes it north east.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167106196681175040

[cjrciadt]

https://i.imgur.com/hjv7WND.png

This could give me CAT 1-3 gusts for almost an entire day!!
Charley was in and out as aCat 1 in under 2 hrs!

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1167108877898436614

[jhpigott]

I would think if the Euro were to hold serve at 12z (landfall at WPB or points south) and with the GFS 12z making landfall in the Vero/Melbourne vicinity, the NHC may adjust their landfall point at the 5pm update south to somewhere along the Martin County/St. Lucie County coastline.

[beachman80]

CMC on board with stalling. Stalls it in Jupiter and just sits there and then drifts NW into central part of state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2900&fh=48

[seahawkjd]

Anyone still watching the GFS? It drops the storm south at 168 dropping the storm south and then back off shore.

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167106196681175040

Moved this post from the discussion thread to here.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1167108877898436614

I hope JB is wrong!

[plasticup]

https://i.imgur.com/hjv7WND.png

This could give me CAT 1-3 gusts for almost an entire day!!
Charley was in and out as aCat 1 in under 2 hrs!

With Fabian, we had TS winds for 36 hours, Cat 1 for 24 hours, and Cat 4 peak. The damage was unlike anything I've ever seen. I had never appreciate that the duration of wind makes such a difference.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Gettin real over in tampa. Gas and water shortages starting. People starting to panic at work with this latest update. It may slice across florida and linger over tampa flbefore headong north.

[sma10]

Subtle, but note that the Uk has dropped its WSW dip

[supercane4867]

12z UKMET is the blue track that takes Dorian into GOM

[northjaxpro]

Wow GFS projecting.more than 2 feet of rain potential along Dorian's potential path up and along the Florida East Coast

This simply would be flat out catastrophic , but with a very slow moving or even stalled powerful hurricane, these rain totals are definitely possible.or even greater.