Michele B wrote:ObsessedMiami wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:The northward trends.
I liked the out to sea trend from this morning; didn't like the diving wsw trend from last night, was lukewarm on the buzz across the middle of the state trend from yesterday. I wonder what the afternoon and evening trend will be?
NHC seems pretty locked on a path for now no matter the trends. All depends on the turn and the ridge.
For me, the biggest problem is, the ENTIRE STATE (well, except for the panhandle) is in the cone, always has been, and remains. Until THAT changes, I will watch very closely.
There is a front draped down into north Florida that might get reinforced by at least a short wave. That helps define the western periphery of the ridging most of the time.
The Andrew analog from 1992 was a situation where the front actually split north of a relatively weak Andrew. The lower part of the front rolled away to the southwest as an upper level low. The ridging rapidly expanded west pulling Andrew into southeast Florida in the last 12 hours completely busting the forecast.
To their credit the NHC put an M on the map for Dorian's Friday position. "Robust hurricane"s often build robust pressure domes with an axis near their own position.
There is an upper level low to the east of Dorian ventilating but the ULL to the west appears to be filling rather than continuing to be a steering element.
We've got a few more runs to digest before the 5 PM update and my observations are just from looking at the high cirrus in the water vapor imagery.
At least now some of the models are considering a trough situation near the end of the run which might be the end result of a competing ridge anomaly caused by Dorians RI.