ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2701 Postby Michele B » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:17 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:which trends are those, you are in real danger of a direct hit?

The northward trends.

I liked the out to sea trend from this morning; didn't like the diving wsw trend from last night, was lukewarm on the buzz across the middle of the state trend from yesterday. I wonder what the afternoon and evening trend will be?
NHC seems pretty locked on a path for now no matter the trends. All depends on the turn and the ridge.


For me, the biggest problem is, the ENTIRE STATE (well, except for the panhandle) is in the cone, always has been, and remains. Until THAT changes, I will watch very closely.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2702 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:17 pm

Michele B wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
tolakram wrote:I'm in the close scrape to out to sea camp but my confidence level is about 2%. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we'll be a lot more confident.


Lets see if this holds after the 12z..

Right now the best consensus, we are privy to say, is south of current nhc forcast. that says a lot.

"It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast"


So if the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP - which I don't know about....btw, are saying SOUTH of current nhc forecast, does that exclude a possible "scrape and brush with coast" scenario?



exclude.. no. we know the general track which would be similar to all three of those.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2703 Postby will759227 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:19 pm

Condor wrote:What time is the next EURO model ?

145
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2704 Postby NFLnut » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:19 pm

Condor wrote:What time is the next EURO model ?



Starts trickling out ~1:45pm
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2705 Postby dspguy » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:19 pm

Michele B wrote:
So if the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP - which I don't know about....btw, are saying SOUTH of current nhc forecast, does that exclude a possible "scrape and brush with coast" scenario?

I wouldn't rule out a coastscraper. Nothing should be ruled out. What if the system stalls by an extra 6 hours and the steering currents send it north into GA/SC/NC? The consensus NOW says its going central FL to south FL. That consensus will probably change in the next 24 hours. Less than 12 hours ago there was all this talk about recurve and out-to-sea because of some ridging or something. The sentiment will change. Just my experience here. However, if you are playing the waiting game another 24 hours before preparing - don't. Prepare now. Listen to your regional authorities. It might pull an Irma and suddenly be going up the west coast instead of the east or spine of FL. Who knows.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2706 Postby will759227 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:20 pm

Michele B wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:Worse case from this track. I may get Cat 2 sustanied winds even in the heart of CFL!!


Yeah, just like with Charley in 2004, we're in the "middle of the state...." and ALL my neighbors thought "We're too far inland to be impacted by that...."

And they found out! "INLAND" in FL doesn't have the same meaning as other states!

Unless this thing is ABOVE our latitude by 50 or so miles, we're boarding up.....

50-100 miles either way can make all the difference to everyone in florida. That's just the way it is. I can drive from tampa to port caneveral in 3-3.5 hours. It's just narrow.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2707 Postby Stormi » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:23 pm

I'm sitting at home watching quite a few people pulling their boats out of slips along St. John's River...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2708 Postby Michele B » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:26 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
plasticup wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
When even the coconut water AND the hot dog buns are gone, there is cause for concern! :lol:

I went to the Costco yesterday for my (ir)regular Weds/Thurs run. Was thinking as I drove there that I would top off my tank (not yet for Dorian .. just because it's $0.04/gallon cheaper) and when I got there, there was a 45 minute line for gas. And a sign out the door "we're out of bottled water." Glad I bought bottled water back in May when you're supposed to. I use it at work if no 'canes.


FYI your tap water is still available. No need for people to buy anything; they can just fill some containers.


My dog won't even drink tap water. In tastes like chlorine


Boil it, cool it, then bottle it.
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ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2709 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:41 pm

Dorian appears to be wedging in between the upper Low and ridge to the north...It could be inhibiting structure and jamming it up from intensifying for the moment..And the quadrant that does have good flow (southern) is drawing in dry air...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2710 Postby Michele B » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:45 pm

Stormi wrote:
will759227 wrote:Well, off to find a generator. May still be able to get lucky at costco. You never know. I just want to run the freezer and fridge and if possible dehumidifier. .. Think a 3500 unit can run that?


It may be close. For refrigerators/freezers I believe you are supposed to find the running wattage & then triple that number which will give you your starting wattage. Check that first & definitely plug all 3 in waiting a bit between each.


I stagger them. Fridge and freezer don't have to be plugged in 24/7. If they are not opened, you can just plug them into the gen about 8/hr/day to keep everything safe. Have done it over and over.

Dehumidifier doesn't take that much Kw (or whatever those are called!!), so no problem running those as many hours a day as you want.

I think we have a 3500, and we ran fridge, two freezers, lamp/TV....only prob we ever had was when we tried to microwave!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2711 Postby Michele B » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:47 pm

Jr0d wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Jr0d wrote:
Generally it is east of US 1. Maybe they were mistaken.


I'm pretty sure for Cat 3 and lower it is US1, but for Cat 4 and higher it would be I-95/Florida Turnpike.


Never in my lifetime(except for trailer parks) have I ever seen a mandatory evacuation that went further than US 1 in Brevard. Also the turnpike does not go through Brevard at all.

Even the most extreme surge will not make it past US1.

There can be a problem with evacuating too many people. This is where it is crucial to know how strong your structure is, how high you are above sea level(storm surge risk) and a have plan before an evacuation order is issued.

What no one wants to see is people stranded on the road because of traffic jams when bad stuff gets here.


Also, might not have to leave town. If you have a good stout house, but only running from the water, don't you have a friend/relative you can go camp out with on the west side of town (on higher ground!) until all clear is called?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2712 Postby Michele B » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:51 pm

Stormi wrote:I'm sitting at home watching quite a few people pulling their boats out of slips along St. John's River...


That's a flooding issue. I think if I had a boat in any waterway in FL right now, I would have it out of the water, too!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2713 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:52 pm

Michele B wrote:
ObsessedMiami wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The northward trends.

I liked the out to sea trend from this morning; didn't like the diving wsw trend from last night, was lukewarm on the buzz across the middle of the state trend from yesterday. I wonder what the afternoon and evening trend will be?
NHC seems pretty locked on a path for now no matter the trends. All depends on the turn and the ridge.


For me, the biggest problem is, the ENTIRE STATE (well, except for the panhandle) is in the cone, always has been, and remains. Until THAT changes, I will watch very closely.


There is a front draped down into north Florida that might get reinforced by at least a short wave. That helps define the western periphery of the ridging most of the time.

The Andrew analog from 1992 was a situation where the front actually split north of a relatively weak Andrew. The lower part of the front rolled away to the southwest as an upper level low. The ridging rapidly expanded west pulling Andrew into southeast Florida in the last 12 hours completely busting the forecast.

To their credit the NHC put an M on the map for Dorian's Friday position. "Robust hurricane"s often build robust pressure domes with an axis near their own position.

There is an upper level low to the east of Dorian ventilating but the ULL to the west appears to be filling rather than continuing to be a steering element.

We've got a few more runs to digest before the 5 PM update and my observations are just from looking at the high cirrus in the water vapor imagery.

At least now some of the models are considering a trough situation near the end of the run which might be the end result of a competing ridge anomaly caused by Dorians RI.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2714 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:57 pm

Outflow on the SW side is a lot better than it was a few hours ago.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2715 Postby Highteeld » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:22 pm

Notable improvements in Dorian over the last 2 hours:
Image
vs.
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2716 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:33 pm

Given the sharp trend east over the last few runs I'm thinking that we get a Floyd-type track out of this when all is said and done.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2717 Postby skillz305 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:37 pm

They are starting to remove half of the street lights here in Vero Beach, FL.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2718 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:37 pm

Move the latest Euro run 120 miles west and you have our worst nightmare here on Sanibel...No lucky break on the surge this time if it shifts west, which it easily could with just a little increase in the ridge...

HWRF just brought a crusher of a slow-moving borderline category 5 over south Miami near the Andrew track...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2719 Postby otowntiger » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:38 pm

So with that latest Euro and GFS run how far south do you all think the NHC will shift the official track south? Or will they?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2720 Postby tailgater » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:40 pm

dspguy wrote:
plasticup wrote:
FYI your tap water is still available. No need for people to buy anything; they can just fill some containers.

I agree. In my case, I keep bottled water on hand for camping or parties, etc. We go through it in between hurricane seasons if we don't need it. The idea of having it bottled isn't so much as the taste, it is that if your area is hard hit, there might not be water pressure and you would have no more tap water. But yeah, can bottle it up beforehand.

FYI I use my refrigerator chilled water and refill bottles using a little Mio or generic brand flavoring. There are Lots of flavors to choose from. Stay safe.
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