ATL: DORIAN - Models

[ricka47]

GFS shifts south with every other model finally, and then the ES goes north, the ES also ran north at 6am too.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking!
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/cb12659e-4870-4a4a-b426-6e7ff4488b70

[caneseddy]

Looks like HMON taking WSW dip and therefore shifts ...has a Cat 4 heading straight for Ft. Lauderdale on a WSW heading...identical to ICON

[ronjon]

12z HMON south of its 06z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082912&fh=54

[Weatherboy1]

HMON big dip WSW toward end of run. Landfalls now by Miami

[AutoPenalti]

Neat, EPS shifts north while operational shifts south.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF shifts south.

[ATCcane]

Big shift North by the GFS ensembles.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019082912_GEFS_0-120h.png

Of course when operational shifts south .

The GFS ensembles are still run from the Legacy GFS model so I'm not sure you can take a whole lot from that shift.

[chris_fit]

[caneseddy]

12z HWRF shifts south.

[kevin]

Hi, everyone I'm new to this forum. I'm from the Netherlands, but (extreme) weather events and models/statistics have always interested so I've already spent quite some time reading this forum. Finally decided to make an account as well. To everyone in the region, stay safe and I hope it doesn't become as extreme in reality as some of the current models show. HMON shows a 919 - 940 mbar landfall near Miami.

[BobHarlem]

12z HWRF shifts south.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2019082912/hmon_ref_05L_33.png

Cat 5 into downtown Miami from the NE? Nope!

[bqknight]

12z HWRF shifts south.

Not really...it's just slower. Seems to be about the same path so far. Bombs it out to 151 kts at 69 hours though.

[jfk08c]

I still think models will start consolidating around the Vero Beach area. GFS too high, Euro too low. Split the difference

[chris_fit]

[KWT]

Thus far the models broadly seem to be a little south, though the GFS ensembles have shifted towards its operational output. Still most of Florida still in the broad area of threat and indeed the model consensus does seem a little south and bringing S.Florida more into play again.

[Aric Dunn]

euro starts turning in 30 to 36 hours.

[tolakram]

Ah the euro, a model of consistency until it counts.

[jlauderdal]

ridge looks solid at 48h on the euro

[MacTavish]

12z HWRF shifts south.

Not really...it's just slower. Seems to be about the same path so far. Bombs it out to 151 kts at 69 hours though.

Youre probably looking at 850mb wind. Surface shows 120kt at 69 hrs

[Aric Dunn]

Thus far the models broadly seem to be a little south, though the GFS ensembles have shifted towards its operational output. Still most of Florida still in the broad area of threat and indeed the model consensus does seem a little south and bringing S.Florida more into play again.

The GFS ensembles are still on the OLD processing Core. they will be more in line with the legacy.