ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Starting to see 850mb vorticity increase in the Gulf of Mexico just south of Apalachicola and Port St. Joe.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like some feeder bands starting to develop sw of tampa. Deep convection offshore should begin soon and by morning we will likely be looking at a quickly developing TD/TS

[Blinhart]

I don't want to see this system form up at all, it isn't in a good spot for anyone. No matter what someone will be getting a ton of rain that has no wheres to go when you are talking about a foot or more of rain. There is really no steering current after it makes it turn North so it could stay anywhere and just dump rain over the same spot for days on end.

Going West to Sabine will cause me to have to worry about the flooding myself, and going to Vermillion Bay would cause New Orleans to be flooded, going to New Orleans would cause all of South Mississippi and Alabama to flood.

[floridasun78]

most storm we saw early have die for night less most now are by new orlean

[northjaxpro]

I don't want to see this system form up at all, it isn't in a good spot for anyone. No matter what someone will be getting a ton of rain that has no wheres to go when you are talking about a foot or more of rain. There is really no steering current after it makes it turn North so it could stay anywhere and just dump rain over the same spot for days on end.

Going West to Sabine will cause me to have to worry about the flooding myself, and going to Vermillion Bay would cause New Orleans to be flooded, going to New Orleans would cause all of South Mississippi and Alabama to flood.

Yeah, it looks like after landfall, steering currents will be very weak as it apoears the Great Lakes trough will lift out by early next week. This will leave Barry's remnants meandering around the Lower MS River Valley region and Southeast U.S. region for days and days next week. Definitely an ominous situation for potential major flooding down into those areas next week.

[MississippiWx]

92L looks to be getting its act together early this morning. Satellite is showing a steadily improving structure.

[USTropics]

Looking at the CIMSS vorticity products for all levels of the atmosphere (850, 700, and 500mb), there's still some work to be done but the area in the NE GOM is beginning to dominate:

850mb:


700mb:


500mb:

[GCANE]

Helicity increasing in the last two towers.
One tower just to the south of the CoC.
CAPE should increase during the day today.
IMHO recon should find this closed off and NHC should name this today.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs offshore showing a developing circ right in the sweet spot from yesterday as mentioned. It is on its way and well offshore likely farther south than the models.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1148867582734282752

[GCANE]

Track is into a firmly entrenched theta-e ridge.
Given that and a very conducive UL environment, IMHO, chances are high for RI.

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1148867582734282752

I just checked initialization of both models and agree.
CoC is a lot further south than what they show.

[GCANE]

[USTropics]

Surface obs offshore showing a developing circ right in the sweet spot from yesterday as mentioned. It is on its way and well offshore likely farther south than the models.

https://i.ibb.co/yP9yrt6/sgdsfnxfhn.png

Yup, can see it clearly with the buoy data right offshore (winds abruptly changed from NW to SSE):

src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1

Data from station in Apalachicola, FL showing E winds at 1:30am and now straight N winds:

src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=apcf1

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs offshore showing a developing circ right in the sweet spot from yesterday as mentioned. It is on its way and well offshore likely farther south than the models.

https://i.ibb.co/yP9yrt6/sgdsfnxfhn.png

Yup, can see it clearly with the buoy data right offshore (winds abruptly changed from NW to SSE):
https://i.imgur.com/sXaPs3W.png
src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1

Data from station in Apalachicola, FL showing E winds at 1:30am and now straight N winds:
https://i.imgur.com/8Md02IK.png
src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=apcf1

https://i.imgur.com/lI7d8is.jpg

yeah and on satellite it is the area of greatest curvatures and clearly a good mid level circ on top of it. so 12z models will be adjusted south quite a bit.

[GCANE]

42039 Pensacola Bouy also showing a shift in winds and low pressure

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42039

[Hurricane Andrew]

Morning all!

Latest WPC D1-D7 QPF forecast ups expected totals to 10-15" over portions of southern and central Louisiana.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1562717669

[GCANE]

Just checked WV and looks like an outflow channel being setup over the Keys / Strait.
A bit of mid-level dry air to the west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[USTropics]

Just checked WV and looks like an outflow channel being setup over the Keys / Strait.
A bit of mid-level dry air to the west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1292/N9bWu5.png

Seems to be enhanced by the ULL cruising through the Bahamas currently as well:
https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

[USTropics]

Didn't take long for the organization to ramp up after this splashed down into those warm bath waters, will be an interesting first visible images this morning: