WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#281 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:46 pm

Up to 80 kt

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 29 November 2019

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 29 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°00' (14.0°)
E137°55' (137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 390 km (210 NM)
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#282 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:00 pm

 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1200197922488377344


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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#283 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:05 pm

924 mb

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#284 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:22 pm

The mid level trough is beginning to kick out. Westward motion should resume fairly soon.

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#285 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:02 am

Around mid 910s

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#286 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:05 am

Theoretical < 890 mb

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#287 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:56 am

Despite its sheared appearance, there has been no change to the track and aggressive RI forecast from the GFS, Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, etc.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#288 Postby NotoSans » Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:55 am

Intensity is likely overestimated right now:
 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1200397515691978753


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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#289 Postby Highteeld » Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:55 am

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#290 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:03 am

All the more interesting to see in the coming days whether Euro's output would verify...like I said before it is very rare to see the Euro forecast a very deep system while the GFS is much more modest.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#291 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:32 am

Not sure but looking at IR satloop, it seems something is peeking :roll:
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#292 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:37 am

The 06z JTWC forecast track has Kammuri stay slightly north of 14 N and outside the largest part of the OHC "hot spot". However, the GFS, Euro, CMC, and ICON runs all show a slightly southern track between 13.5-13.9 N at around 72 hrs out, with the Euro being the furthest within the hot spot (which probably explains why it's been so aggressive). A Euro-like track could result in Kammuri travelling through twice the amount of the highest OHC relative to the latest official track.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#293 Postby Highteeld » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:44 am

Latest Euro (06z run) doubles down on its intensity forecast and spits out 904 mb right before landfall!

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#294 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:50 am

Highteeld wrote:Latest Euro (06z run) doubles down on its intensity forecast and spits out 904 mb right before landfall!

https://i.imgur.com/xe4L8V9.png


Looks like Euro shifts to a passage south of Manila
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#295 Postby Highteeld » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:53 am

Just for kicks, these are by far the strongest simulated winds I have ever seen the euro forecast -->

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#296 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:00 am

Highteeld wrote:Just for kicks, these are by far the strongest simulated winds I have ever seen the euro forecast -->

https://i.imgur.com/jju15na.png
https://i.imgur.com/zONoiBF.png


904-905 mbar and 170 kt....has the Euro gone mad?!
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#297 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:01 am

aspen wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Just for kicks, these are by far the strongest simulated winds I have ever seen the euro forecast -->

https://i.imgur.com/jju15na.png
https://i.imgur.com/zONoiBF.png


904-905 mbar and 170 kt....has the Euro gone mad?!


That's the wind at the 850 mb level.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#298 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:18 am

Hayabusa wrote:
aspen wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Just for kicks, these are by far the strongest simulated winds I have ever seen the euro forecast -->

https://i.imgur.com/jju15na.png
https://i.imgur.com/zONoiBF.png


904-905 mbar and 170 kt....has the Euro gone mad?!


That's the wind at the 850 mb level.


My bad. Still, 904-905 mbar from the usually tame Euro is quite something.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#299 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:46 am

Better be conservative/cautious than aggressive, unlike Nuri and Hagupit at one point they issued a warning showing a 170 knots peak.

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#300 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:01 am

Hayabusa wrote:Better be conservative/cautious than aggressive, unlike Nuri and Hagupit at one point they issued a warning showing a 170 knots peak.

https://i.imgur.com/Skj7COq.gif


That is very, very conservative...perhaps a little too conservative given what the global models are showing.
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