ATL: DORIAN - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Skims coast near pompano Beach at 138 and then moves northward at 144 skimming near West Palm. Now going to go back offshore I think

Looks like it makes landfall near Palm Beach.

[Ken711]

Skims coast near pompano Beach at 138 and then moves northward at 144 skimming near West Palm. Now going to go back offshore I think

Hurricane Matthew track?

[KWT]

Shows what might happen if Dorian's steering currents slow down and weaken enough that it gets caught up in the next upper trough that comes through. Probably going to be a Carolinas threat on this run as well unless the upper trough really catches it.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: Yep, moving back barely offshore northward.

[Patrick99]

That is.....interesting. I swear there is a historical storm track a century or so ago that looks a lot like that......I think it happened in early October though.

[Stormcenter]

Okay we all know this track will not pan out. It’s
much more likely Dorian misses Florida completely.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What the models are keen on, is that this is going to be a powerful hurricane. I am hoping some type of dry air or shear prevents this from strengthening. Stay safe in FL and take the flooding threat seriously. Water is the number one killer in these storms.

[supercane4867]

The eyewall would still went onshore this run

[jlauderdal]

Okay we all know this track will not pan out. It’s
much more likely Dorian misses Florida completely.

the trend is for an earlier turn with the euro, if it continues it never hits florida, time will tell

[chris_fit]

Wow - Goodbye E Coast of FL if that track pans out - Yikes!!!

[CronkPSU]

Okay we all know this track will not pan out. It’s
much more likely Dorian misses Florida completely.

with that model run, equally likely to miss it to the south as it is to the east

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: 2nd landfall Canaveral

[tolakram]

Okay we all know this track will not pan out. It’s
much more likely Dorian misses Florida completely.

I disagree. My confidence in a recurve just before shore has risen slightly. Everyone harps on the GFS ridge bias and selectively forgets the Euro's left bias.

[jfk08c]

Almost 2 days time difference in landfall between latest Euro and GFS runs. Clearly the models are struggling to predict the systems speed moving towards Florida. Hopefully in the next day or so, data will start to get a little more consistent and the timing of the ridge interaction will be more apparent

[seahawkjd]

What the models are keen on, is that this is going to be a powerful hurricane. I am hoping some type of dry air or shear prevents this from strengthening. Stay safe in FL and take the flooding threat seriously. Water is the number one killer in these storms.

Yes. Water kills and water does the majority of the damage whether it is from storm surge or rain. Its been a year since Florence and there are still homes being repaired here from water damage.

[chris_fit]

[AutoPenalti]

Sigh, this is getting frustrating.

You would think with such a slow down, Dorian would weaken due to upwelling.

[gatorcane]

That Euro track looks like a snake heading towards South Florida. Wow that would be really bad for the coast for Broward and Palm Beach and all the way up the east coast of Florida

[supercane4867]

Hurricane David track?

[PavelGaborik10]

Getting some serious Matthew vibes with the Euro