ozonepete wrote:wjs3 wrote:ozonepete wrote:
They won't shift south on one 18Z GFS model run. With many of the models and ensembles showing a hard right and slow speed near or over Florida the uncertainty at days 4 and 5 is only increasing. You don't make a big shift on day 5 with that kind of uncertainty. NHC will play it safe here until they see the evening run output from GFS and Euro.
How are you, old friend?
Nope, you don't make a big shift, but--unless the ensembles say otherwise--I think a "nudge" south is prudent, maybe? At least based on the data so far?
Hello old friend!
The problem is the track at days 4 and 5 is highly suspect. It's going to move west-northwestward into the northern Bahamas, then turn west-southwest, but only for a few hours (!), then make a sharp right to due north. The sharp right and slow down always indicate model uncertainty that isn't resolved until day 3, which is terrible for Florida because day 3 keeps moving away.But those kind of tracks at day 4 and 5 almost never pan out. And imo most later day right turn forecasts for FL hurricanes forecast the turn too late. I just want to be more certain of what the STR is going to do.
P.S. And of course the models have realy blown the track so far and seem like they are still not doing that well. Any movement now more north than forecast is going to start to force a more northward landfall, even if the ridge strengthens.
The "sharp right turn" - obviously - is caused by the blocking high pressure ridge moving out, right?
So what if all this prevarication on Dorian's part, the "slowing" (which has cause NHC to alter their lf estimates to Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday) ends up going too far south to be picked up or MISSING the ridge altogether and DOES end up moving poleward and moving OTS? Is it possible, based on what I've outlined above?
)
