ATL: DORIAN - Models

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Isn't today the day that we can expect a huge amount of surrounding synoptic data to get input into the models? Wouldn't it be tonight's late model runs that would include all that data with their solutions? I know all the balloons were going up x4 today and a few planes are out testing the atmosphere to judge ridge strength. I think we just have to wait for that new injested data to get a clearer picture on what the setup will be when Dorian gets off the FL coastline.

[Hurrilurker]

Hard to believe how different Ukmet Euro and GFS are at 120 hours
How does the NHC and a forecast out of this.

Average them out

It brings up the question of whether the "cone" should not be a fixed width at X days, but rather should be variable so they could show a very wide cone in this case. I'm actually not sure if it's not variable, but it seems to me the cone width should be very wide right now at 3+ days.

[stormlover2013]

looks like a pretty hefty trough on euro.

[beachman80]

Just as a reminder to those who remember Irma, the Euro’s track is almost the same exact track the NHC had for Irma 96 hours before landfall. In other words, it doesn’t take much for this to go from an east coast problem to a west coast problem.

[chris_fit]

Just as a reminder to those who remember Irma, the Euro’s track is almost the same exact track the NHC had for Irma 96 hours before landfall. In other words, it doesn’t take much for this to go from an east coast problem to a west coast problem.

Or Marine Vessel Problem!

[will759227]

Euro model has for the 3rd or 4th run, trended east, how long until it misses florida all together?

[Steve]

Major takeaway from the EC was that if it were to verify, it's probably going to be a Top 5 costliest storm. Factor in probably tens of billions in Miami-Dade/Brower/Palm Beach and then up the coast. You'd have to think it would be on the order of $50-70 Billion or so.
------------------------------------------------------
Lots of people say the spine of florida. Isn't it more the urethra?

[NFLnut]

Getting some serious Matthew vibes with the Euro

Exactly the vibes I've been getting since 00z. Latest scrapes the coast just like Matthew 2016. EURO definitely sticking to its sharp north turn at or before FL coast.

[funster]

Looking like sort of a scary Harvey situation for Florida with the way the Euro is acting. Hope not.

[Frank2]

Anyone have a link for the European model?

Thanks

[chris_fit]

12z EPS running now..... gonna be interesting

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM hits West Palm / Palm Beach County at 102 hours then moves Dorian across the state to Tampa

[beachman80]

While I find he Euro most reliable, no one else seems to be following them. Not many at least. The UK is the second best model in my opinion and not to be ignored and they take This into the Gulf.

[Steve]

While I find he Euro most reliable, no one else seems to be following them. Not many at least. The UK is the second best model in my opinion and not to be ignored and they take This into the Gulf.

No one else seems to be following whom?

[StPeteMike]

I’ll wait until later tonight before I start taking this sharp north turn seriously... I’m not buying it at this point.

[ronjon]

It seems that the 12z Euro went off the reservation this run - compared with every other model that's much faster - I think the idea of a SW drift makes sense but to me 12z HMON makes more sense than the Euro drifting around for 2-3 days. Both the UKMET and HWRF take the system into the GOM. Until we get better resolution on the systems forward speed the track forecast will be a mess.

[LarryWx]

Early 12Z EPS maps suggest it will likely be similar to the 6Z version with many sharp recurvers along with a good number of FL skims/hits that then turn north. Likely won't be that many crossing to the Gulf.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking at the Euro ensembles and the mostly north current motion. The effect is that the effective westward progress is "slowed" and thus a more NE motion at the end of the runs. Been trending that way the last few runs. The modeling on this is going to be dicey and the "S" turns will exaggerate the timing of a landfall. Even within the cone there will a huge variance here. I am with "57...I don't like Dorian.

[tolakram]

Anyone have a link for the European model?

Thanks

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1167150262672416769