ATL: DORIAN - Models

[stormlover2013]

I think 3 days out models have a descent grip on it but 5-7 days not so much. So short term not bad long term who knows lol

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS Wayyyyy slower than the 00Z

[NDG]

Funny how the 12z Euro says let’s not worry about Dorian for now, go ahead with your Labor Day weekend plans and have a great time

[AJC3]

You have to wonder what data was picked up by the EURO on that run that caused it to be almost 24 hours or more slower than every other major model

Breaks the ridge down early, which slows it down. What I find odd is it sends Dorian SW, as if this is one of those epicly strong ridges, then poof, it's gone. Maybe a Promet can explain that?

Nuke?

[LarryWx]

Early 12Z EPS maps suggest it will likely be similar to the 6Z version with many sharp recurvers along with a good number of FL skims/hits that then turn north. Likely won't be that many crossing to the Gulf.

Confirmed. The 12Z EPS mean is mirroring the 12Z operational. It is somewhat similar to the 6Z EPS.

[sma10]

Remember early this week when cooler heads were saying, "calm down everybody, we'll know a lot more Thursday".

I think we know a lot LESS lmao

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro is certainly interesting, but for now it's an outlier. I doubt we'll see much change in the track for Dorian at 5pm.

[Blown Away]

Reality with hurricane tracks tend to be more smooth, not slam on brakes going WSW then go NNW. Euro is King, but that run was a little to extreme.

[Hurricaneman]

We’ll have a better grasp on track when the synoptic mission data goes into the models

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS seems slower and more S overall vs the 00Z

[LarryWx]

I roughly estimate that 28-30 of the ~51 12Z EPS members don't even reach the FL east coast, which is similar to the 6Z EPS.

[alienstorm]

Slower and spread

[caneman]

Reality with hurricane tracks tend to be more smooth, not slam on brakes going WSW then go NNW. Euro is King, but that run was a little to extreme.

UKIE has been King inside of 96 hours with Dorian. Models are windshield wiping hard like I've not seen before

[p1nheadlarry]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8619/w0uk38.jpg

Slower and spread

Lots of weak ones

[WeatherEmperor]

A closer look at the latest model plots. The TVCN hasnt changed much despite the Euro run. Maybe the NHC keeps the track the same at 5pm or will they push it south?




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[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: more runs are actually east of the operational than west.

[BobHarlem]

18z Earlies are hyperfocused just south of Melbourne, noticbly slower once inland, though.... Then hey UKMET.

[alienstorm]

96 hrs notice ridge

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF-P

[caneman]

Can someone tell me what the UKIE has for wind speed at landfall and what it has for wind when near Tampa? Thanks