ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/1167165059732254720

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Gettin real over in tampa. Gas and water shortages starting. People starting to panic at work with this latest update. It may slice across florida and linger over tampa flbefore headong north.

In Tampa, I'm most worried about this thing not so much slicing across the state, but getting into the SE Gulf. Florida is a unique state in its structure. Say for example it does exactly what the GFS does but makes landfall in Miami instead of Melbourne. Well, then it moves due west some 50 miles and it's in the SE Gulf and then drifts NNW which parallels the west coast. It wouldn't take much of a model change for it to do that.

Ugh..2 feet of rain? Thats catastrophic

[Jonny]

So the FL panhandle is possibly safe, it’s just not set in stone yet?

[DESTRUCTION5]

In my opinion landfall time will be changing, the track has to be slowed down.

https://i.imgur.com/uTKFLB2.jpg

I doubt it, the TVCN is onshore at 96 hours and stalls... NHC not buying Dorian being around off Palm Beach in 123 hours like ensembles say...

I think they will drop track south 30 miles into Martin St Lucie with respect to the Euro Dip and UKmet..and GFS finally shifting south .

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Been out of the office most of the day,

Attempting to catch on on what models has done what. But to be honest with you right now after reading these post I am so confused. Is it staying of shore now is it north East west south Lol what happened today with the models.

[ObsessedMiami]

So the FL panhandle is possibly safe, it’s just not set in stone yet?

I don't think I would make that statement. Everything is out there.

[karenfromheaven]

So the FL panhandle is possibly safe, it’s just not set in stone yet?

The preponderance of ensembles are to the east at the moment. Take a breath, but keep watching.

[Sciencerocks]

In my opinion landfall time will be changing, the track has to be slowed down.

https://i.imgur.com/uTKFLB2.jpg

I doubt it, the TVCN is onshore at 96 hours and stalls... NHC not buying Dorian being around off Palm Beach in 123 hours like ensembles say...

I think they will drop track south 30 miles into Martin St Lucie with respect to the Euro Dip and UKmet..and GFS finally shifting south .

martin/st.lucie county is my prediction for the center to make landfall.

[norva13x]

Do other models besides EURO see a coast rider or OTS? Unless other models pick it up and show it through tonight and into morning I don't really buy it yet.

[Jonny]

I don't think I would make that statement. Everything is out there.

I just meant that it’s looking less likely ATM, but we should still keep watch.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking at the water vapor loops. To me it doesn't look like the upper low is not going to get out of Dorians way any time soon. GFS makes more sense. Heading more north. Closer to orlando to jacksonville area. Just my opinion.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[viberama]

Hasn't the Euro struggled the past few years when a storm decides to stall or slow to a crawl? That's what we might be seeing right now. I'm still in the camp of a Melbourne or just south of Melbourne landfall and then a stall out before it gets lifted to the north.

"Not an official forecast"

[StPeteMike]

Looking at the water vapor loops. To me it doesn't look like the upper low is not going to get out of Dorians way any time soon. GFS makes more sense. Heading more north. Closer to orlando to jacksonville area. Just my opinion.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

I always felt like the ULL was actually tugging Dorian in the same direction as it was going, until the ULL got too far west to have any directional influence.

[Aric Dunn]

I think I will stick with the one EPS to texas.. lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hasn't the Euro struggled the past few years when a storm decides to stall or slow to a crawl? That's what we might be seeing right now. I'm still in the camp of a Melbourne or just south of Melbourne landfall and then a stall out before it gets lifted to the north.

"Not an official forecast"

At the same time. The UK is further south, and that model nailed irma. It also was the first to even see the WSW dip that the other models now show.

[Nimbus]

Looking at the water vapor loops. To me it doesn't look like the upper low is not going to get out of Dorians way any time soon. GFS makes more sense. Heading more north. Closer to orlando to jacksonville area. Just my opinion.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

If the TABD were a dynamic model that nice dry air in Tallahassee would be a good luck omen for Jacksonville.

[Blinhart]

The major problem with all these models is that they are all suggesting a trough that isn't even around right now. No idea how strong or how far it will move and the impact it will have on the actual movement and weaknesses in the future. So everything is up in the air. Many meteorologists are still trying to get a grasp of the possible effects of this trough and what is going to happen. So everything should be taken with a grain of salt.

[ronjon]

Been out of the office most of the day,

Attempting to catch on on what models has done what. But to be honest with you right now after reading these post I am so confused. Is it staying of shore now is it north East west south Lol what happened today with the models.

I posted this on the other thread.

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

[Blinhart]

I think I will stick with the one EPS to texas.. lol

I wouldn't be shocked at all if it does end up in the Central Gulf Coast, just don't know if it makes it all the way to Texas. If I remember at one time Katrina was suppose to go up to Pensacola and ended up in New Orleans.

[alienstorm]

12Z EPS - Average track OTS