ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/1167169829805133826

[Jonny]

If I remember at one time Katrina was suppose to go up to Pensacola and ended up in New Orleans.

Yup, I remember that, too.

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/1167169829805133826

If I would have to answer that question, I would say the likelihood is very low of a sharp turn like that happening. I think it would take more like 36 hours not 18 hours.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1167169543392911366

[Aric Dunn]

THe biggest thing we have to watch is that upper low. this bend to the west can just as easily start sooner depending on haw far sw that low moves.

[AtlanticWind]

12Z EPS - Average track OTS
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3221/PoDnj1.jpg

I wouldn't go by the average ,as it has several members peeling north way to soon
That's not going to happen

[Bhuggs]

Been out of the office most of the day,

Attempting to catch on on what models has done what. But to be honest with you right now after reading these post I am so confused. Is it staying of shore now is it north East west south Lol what happened today with the models.

I posted this on the other thread.

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

That is really eye opening. We should track this over the next 24 hours model runs and see if the group moves towards euro or euro towards the group

[TheStormExpert]

Been out of the office most of the day,

Attempting to catch on on what models has done what. But to be honest with you right now after reading these post I am so confused. Is it staying of shore now is it north East west south Lol what happened today with the models.

I posted this on the other thread.

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

12z GFS-Legacy doesn’t have a landfall in Jupiter, it’s more like Ft. Pierce.

[beachman80]

Been out of the office most of the day,

Attempting to catch on on what models has done what. But to be honest with you right now after reading these post I am so confused. Is it staying of shore now is it north East west south Lol what happened today with the models.

I posted this on the other thread.

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

Interesting. UK and Euro have been on the same page with this storm until the 12z. They were literally like twins in how they saw the storm. Now they've gone in completely different directions. UK with landfall in 84 hours and going into the Gulf. Euro with landfall in 144 hours and going N and then NE. To me, those are the best two models and I'm curious which will blink first.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM Bee-lines towards SE Florida and even has a WSW dip.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Been out of the office most of the day,

Attempting to catch on on what models has done what. But to be honest with you right now after reading these post I am so confused. Is it staying of shore now is it north East west south Lol what happened today with the models.

I posted this on the other thread.

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

That is really eye opening. We should track this over the next 24 hours model runs and see if the group moves towards euro or euro towards the group

This is misleading. Almost all of the models show some sort of stall or slowdown and some degree of a northern turn. The Euro is showing this slowdown further east rather than already over Florida thus the wider gap in time before landfall. The significant feature is the more eastern stall.

[CourierPR]

I think, as Aric previously alluded to, that much will depend on when that bend to the west happens. If it happens earlier than forecasted then things will get very interesting.

[ronjon]

18Z NAM Bee-lines towards SE Florida and even has a WSW dip.

Yeah still very similar to the UKMET - either Dorian rides the ridge and accelerates or slows to a crawl with it collapsing.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM slowly moving W to WSW when run ends:

[storm4u]

18Z NAM Bee-lines towards SE Florida and even has a WSW dip.

NAM is useless in tropical forecasting

[p1nheadlarry]

The major problem with all these models is that they are all suggesting a trough that isn't even around right now. No idea how strong or how far it will move and the impact it will have on the actual movement and weaknesses in the future. So everything is up in the air. Many meteorologists are still trying to get a grasp of the possible effects of this trough and what is going to happen. So everything should be taken with a grain of salt.

Shortwaves are potent little suckers. It's the curvature!

[jfk08c]

18Z NAM Bee-lines towards SE Florida and even has a WSW dip.

NAM is useless in tropical forecasting

I could say the same for ICON track wise, yet people still include it as a reference

[ronjon]

I posted this on the other thread.

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

That is really eye opening. We should track this over the next 24 hours model runs and see if the group moves towards euro or euro towards the group

This is misleading. Almost all of the models show some sort of stall or slowdown and some degree of a northern turn. The Euro is showing this slowdown further east rather than already over Florida thus the wider gap in time before landfall. The significant feature is the more eastern stall.

I disagree. Euro still has Dorian out near the eastern Bahama islands at 96 hrs.

Take a look.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2019082912&fh=96

[USTropics]

12z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ensemble comparison:

[xironman]

https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/1167169829805133826

DT is a good met, his best statement on FaceBook:

"However given that it still late Summer and just turning into early Autumn it is quite possible that the weather models are overdoing the depth of this trough. They often do that in the extended range. If that is the case we should know in a subsequent weather models over the next 36 hours and we may see less of a turn to the northwest and increased chance of Dorian getting into the eastern Gulf of Mexico."

Yup, happens consistently at this time of year