ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aperson]

Let's see if Jerry can pull a Jose-2000 and reach Cat 2 before the shear really hits, only 10kt to go.

It also may ride right along the edge of the strongest shear.

Yeah I've been considering a scenario where stronger = more UL influence that pushes it south = stays under the shear where it enhances outflow instead of shearing system = stronger. Feedback loop for a stronger more southern system.

[AutoPenalti]

Let's see if Jerry can pull a Jose-2000 and reach Cat 2 before the shear really hits, only 10kt to go.

It also may ride right along the edge of the strongest shear.

Yeah I've been considering a scenario where stronger = more UL influence that pushes it south = stays under the shear where it enhances outflow instead of shearing system = stronger. Feedback loop for a stronger more southern system.

The problem with that is the models aren’t taking that into account. It’s already encountering heavy shear and it’s looking gradually worse than a couple of hours ago. I think the models have it right this time.

[msbee]

Could I have some of your best "guesstimates" on what kind of weather we should expect on St Maarten from Jerry?
Thank you

I would prepare for a hurricane just incase.

we are doing that. After Irma, we take no chances

[StruThiO]

Things are getting very interesting

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1174772724310429696

[Emmett_Brown]

I notice on Tidbits that an upper level dropsonde mission is under way, so I assume this evenings model runs might get this data

[Aric Dunn]

yeah appears it is not having much of an issue pushing the shear back for now.

if it stays on the southern portion of the models then it will ride the lower shear route until north of PR.

nothing is set in stone with this by any means.

[StruThiO]

[Aric Dunn]

i said it earlier .. but ill say it again.. looks like it has bent more westerly the last few hours. probably around 280 to 285.

[StruThiO]

[gatorcane]

I would say it has a 99.9999% chance of not impacting the CONUS and probably will end up a fish storm. Too much troughiness.

[Visioen]

Still doing great on IR.

[stormwatcher95]

Still a threat to the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda on the recurve IF thats what happens. I think closest pass per the current NHC path puts the center at its closest less than 150 miles from Anguilla, and less than 40 miles from Bermuda.

[Fishing]

it blows my mind how quiet it is here.

There are some of us hanging out but we don’t post mostly because we don’t have much to say or it’s been said already. I also noticed many are watching the Imelda board with the situation in Texas which is mind boggling.
We who aren’t posting do appreciate the posts though! So thx!


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[icallstorms]

Holding back the shear is what Jerry is doing, now at 90 MPH. IMO I think if he continues to intensify, he might be able to fight the rest of the shear off.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS likely wont have anything past drop 16 from the Gulfstream.

but from the data compared with the 12z GFS soundings the ridging is building west faster than the GFS has been showing by about 200 miles.


will likely have to wait for the 00z GFS for a full view of track adjustments for the islands.

this extra ridging may be enough to keep it too close to the NE islands.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Jerry's doing his best to wrap up, but you can see clear as day what's about to happen. The entire western quadrant is now devoid of any spiral banding and the CDO has a very squashed look to it. Moving into a very hostile environment.

[LarryWx]

When looking at the 11AM-5 PM movement, he moved a pretty decent amount to the right of the NHC track, 0.2 W for every 0.1N instead of the projected 0.3W for every 0.1N

11 AM NHC had him at 17.5N, 56.5W as of 8 PM. But at 5 PM, he was already up to 17.5 N while still only at 55.8 W. So, at 5 PM, he was a whopping 0.7 east of where he was projected to be by the 11 AM advisory when reaching 17.5 N. This has to be good news for those wanting a safe recurve from the CONUS. I'm surprised nobody else mentioned this.
My feeling of a 90% chance of no CONUS hit may be raised soon to the 95% area if this right of NHC track continues much longer. The only thing going against a safe recurve are the 6 of 51 (12%) 12Z Euro ens showing a CONUS hit, which is similar to the two prior runs. So that small minority is persisting for the time being. Regardless, they're highly likely to be very wrong just like those Euro ens members looping Humberto back to the US after earlier moving off the SE US coast a few hundred miles. And keep in mind there were THREE Euro ens runs with as much as 25-30% turning Humberto around and hitting the US. In this case, it is only 12%. I currently feel they're wait out to lunch.

[boca]

Thankfully other than poor Bermuda every storm that forms will recurve in the pattern that we are stuck in other than the Western Caribbean.

[msbee]

I would say it has a 99.9999% chance of not impacting the CONUS and probably will end up a fish storm. Too much troughiness.

I wouldn't call it a fish storm just yet when we still don't know how or if it will affect the Northern Caribbean islands