WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

How could 90kts be on the high side when models show much more than that.

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 983 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS FLARING OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FROM A METOP-A
ASCAT PASS SHOWING A CLEAR LLCC WITH 45-50 KNOT WIND BARBS SITUATED
TO THE WEST. MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) ARE WELL ABOVE A 291210Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A
290845Z SMAP PASS OF 50 KNOTS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE. TY 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 29W WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
THROUGH LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE MAINTAINS STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 96. TY
29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS TY 29W PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
NNNN

[aspen]

How could 90kts be on the high side when models show much more than that.

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 983 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS FLARING OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FROM A METOP-A
ASCAT PASS SHOWING A CLEAR LLCC WITH 45-50 KNOT WIND BARBS SITUATED
TO THE WEST. MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) ARE WELL ABOVE A 291210Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A
290845Z SMAP PASS OF 50 KNOTS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE. TY 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 29W WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
THROUGH LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE MAINTAINS STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 96. TY
29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS TY 29W PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
NNNN

I hope the JTWC seriously ups the forecast peak within the next 24-36 hours, or else people are going to expect a much weaker storm that what might actually occur.

[mrbagyo]

Kammuri is nothing more but a convective powerhouse as of this moment.

[aspen]

Josh Morgerman will be chasing Kammuri: https://mobile.twitter.com/iCyclone/sta ... 0642312192

[Hayabusa]

922 mb

[aspen]

12z Euro brings Kammuri to 924 mbar in 72 hours, right before landfall.

[Highteeld]

This storm is firing the coldest convection I have ever seen, yet the core has yet to really organize since the disruption about 36 hours ago.

[aspen]

This storm is firing the coldest convection I have ever seen, yet the core has yet to really organize since the disruption about 36 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/Vc8GQGC.png

Isn’t disruption still ongoing? There were signs of shear starting to displace some of the convection earlier today.

[Highteeld]

This storm is firing the coldest convection I have ever seen, yet the core has yet to really organize since the disruption about 36 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/Vc8GQGC.png

Isn’t disruption still ongoing? There were signs of shear starting to displace some of the convection earlier today.

Yeah, I'd say so. The core still looks like crap if you ask me -- sorry if that wasn't clear in my previous post.

[aspen]

This storm is firing the coldest convection I have ever seen, yet the core has yet to really organize since the disruption about 36 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/Vc8GQGC.png

Isn’t disruption still ongoing? There were signs of shear starting to displace some of the convection earlier today.

Yeah, I'd say so. The core still looks like crap if you ask me -- sorry if that wasn't clear in my previous post.

The core may be complete garbage, but I’ve rarely seen huge amounts of consistent extremely deep (<-90 C) convection. I have a feeling Kammuri will quickly recover once shear relaxes.

[Hayabusa]

It will move relatively slow over the Philippine Sea all the way through landfall so it has enough time to really make fully use of that OHC and SST, of course assuming shear relaxes soon.

29W
TYPHOON 29W 18:00UTC 29November2019
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from JTWC) :
Latitude : 13:51:57 N
Longitude : 136:59:00 E
Intensity (MSLP) : 967.7 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 875.1 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 92.6 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 8.6 m/s (16.6 kts)
Direction : 97.4 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.5 -6.0 - -3.0 -9.0 - -4.5 -12.0 - -6.0
N -1.5 - +1.5 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.5 - +4.5 -6.0 - +6.0
U +1.5 - +3.0 +3.0 - +6.0 +4.5 - +9.0 +6.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

[aspen]

The first few visible images show that Kammuri's center of circulation is partially exposed, but mostly obscured by the CCC, more than it was earlier this morning. I labelled the latest image from WeatherNerds, marking the exposed part of the circulation and where I think the exact center is located. It looks like garbage, but you can get the gist.

[Hayabusa]

VCDG cloud region temp

2019NOV29 224000 3.7 984.4 59.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -84.63 -85.55 UNIFRM N/A 1.2 13.95 -136.55 ARCHER HIM-8 17.0

[Highteeld]

Not much change, just colder.

[MarioProtVI]

Unless this thing gets its act together, it’s not gonna get any stronger then 80 kt with that central cold cover pattern (CCC) with a trash inner core. Plus I highly doubt it’s a typhoon right now as ASCAT only supported winds of 55-60 kt when accounting for the undersampling. Probably been a TS since 00z this morning.

[aspen]

Unless this thing gets its act together, it’s not gonna get any stronger then 80 kt with that central cold cover pattern (CCC) with a trash inner core. Plus I highly doubt it’s a typhoon right now as ASCAT only supported winds of 55-60 kt when accounting for the undersampling. Probably been a TS since 00z this morning.

The fact that every global model — even the Euro — is very aggressive with this supports that the environment should become more favorable and Kammuri should, in theory, get itself together. The latest CIMSS wind shear tendency map shows that, while shear is still around 15-20 kt in most of Kammuri’s path, it is decreasing by 5-20 kt.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[aspen]

Even though all the global models have been very aggressive with Kammuri (except the NAVGEM in the latest run), they all have predicted the phase of stagnant intensification we see now, and suggest it will continue for the next 24 hours. Excluding the NAVGEM, all global models (GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, and HWRF) show a phase of RI starting between 00z and 06z on Sunday, within 36-48 hours before landfall. This seems plausible given the current environment and how wind shear should be leveling off starting tomorrow.

[Highteeld]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/vSkDS0x.png

It’s getting there. That’s the best microwave presentation it’s had in days.

[Highteeld]

Signs of a second hot tower firing up. probably trying to build a core again.