ATL: DORIAN - Models

[caneman]

The Ukmet has been impressing the he!! Out me the last few years. One of my go to's now

Disagree. The only outlier now is the Euro

I wouldn’t call it an outlier either they are all showing a similar trend, the days to come will tighten that trend and we will get a consensus.

Going up the east coast is an outlier of the best models

[Ivanhater]

Huge shifts south in just 24 hours. Huge implications down the road of how far south Dorian gets and the influence of the short wave. There is no major trough in play this time. Going to see many more changes down the road.

[StormingB81]

I’m just waiting for the modes to shift again and throw my hands up like really!?!!!?! Lol

[Blinhart]

The super odd thing is that "The Old Farmer's Almanac" in January predicted that there would be a Hurricane stewing in the middle of the GoM for this weekend, so being printed 9 months earlier it is only off by about 1000 miles or maybe a week. That is pretty interesting. But also the ICON is showing something starting to brew in the Gulf this weekend so it might be right on.

[Michele B]

Technically the ICON has shown a SW dive over the entirety of the model's runs since Sunday (with a few runs diving SW into Cuba). It was also the first model to pickup on Dorian moving east of PR (12 straight runs).

ICON and UKMET have been very consistent. I will be impressed if they nail this storm's path this far out and new GFS and Euro do not.

Where do you all see all these models? I thought they'd be in this thread, but they're not (not that I can see).

TIA

[johngaltfla]

Technically the ICON has shown a SW dive over the entirety of the model's runs since Sunday (with a few runs diving SW into Cuba). It was also the first model to pickup on Dorian moving east of PR (12 straight runs).

ICON and UKMET have been very consistent. I will be impressed if they nail this storm's path this far out and new GFS and Euro do not.

Where do you all see all these models? I thought they'd be in this thread, but they're not (not that I can see).

TIA

I use TropicalTidbits.com and weather.us along with some of the collegiate sites. Your mileage may vary on which ones you like as some are easier to use than others.

[SoupBone]

I am sure the TVCN consensus will keep shifting south after the 18z GFS but the NHC may not shift its track that far south just yet. IMO.

They likely won't shift it much at all based one one run, especially with the shifts that have been happening.

[Emmett_Brown]

One model that has been pretty similar to the actual 5 day NHC forecast track has been the legacy GFS. Is it right, or is this just coincidence? Who knows... but it has been more consistent run to run than some of the others.

[GeneratorPower]

I’m just in shock at how folks live and die based on these models. They’re just tools. They are not themselves a reliable forecast. Most of us don’t know how to interpret what they are showing.

[jfk08c]

I’m just in shock at how folks live and die based on these models. They’re just tools. They are not themselves a reliable forecast. Most of us don’t know how to interpret what they are showing.

Once you drown out statistical noise, its easy to zero in on a rough area where landfall is a possibility. The problem is that the environmental factors aren't static, they're constantly changing. That's the beauty of nature, it's crazy and unpredictable.

[drewschmaltz]

I’m just in shock at how folks live and die based on these models. They’re just tools. They are not themselves a reliable forecast. Most of us don’t know how to interpret what they are showing.

There will be a day in the future when the computer models will do far better than humans. Not just for meteorology, but for most things. They will read and interpret themselves better than even we can. They are just early to the trend

[Steve]

The super odd thing is that "The Old Farmer's Almanac" in January predicted that there would be a Hurricane stewing in the middle of the GoM for this weekend, so being printed 9 months earlier it is only off by about 1000 miles or maybe a week. That is pretty interesting. But also the ICON is showing something starting to brew in the Gulf this weekend so it might be right on.

Haha. Farmers Almanac is trash, like the astrology of weather forecasting. It’s fun when it hits sometimes though.

[Steve]

I’m just in shock at how folks live and die based on these models. They’re just tools. They are not themselves a reliable forecast. Most of us don’t know how to interpret what they are showing.

It’s the models thread.

[MacTavish]

One model that has been pretty similar to the actual 5 day NHC forecast track has been the legacy GFS. Is it right, or is this just coincidence? Who knows... but it has been more consistent run to run than some of the others.

Yup legacy gfs has shown basically the same area of landfall at similar intensity for almost 24hrs now. And very close to the official track.

[jfk08c]

One model that has been pretty similar to the actual 5 day NHC forecast track has been the legacy GFS. Is it right, or is this just coincidence? Who knows... but it has been more consistent run to run than some of the others.

Yup legacy gfs has shown basically the same area of landfall at similar intensity for almost 24hrs now. And very close to the official track.

Couldn't write a better underdog story if the Legacy beat out the FV3 on its first season being benched.

[SouthFloridawx]

I’m just in shock at how folks live and die based on these models. They’re just tools. They are not themselves a reliable forecast. Most of us don’t know how to interpret what they are showing.

It’s the models thread.

Boom! Love that comment

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[stormchazer]

I’m just in shock at how folks live and die based on these models. They’re just tools. They are not themselves a reliable forecast. Most of us don’t know how to interpret what they are showing.

imagine folks on a Tropical Weather forums in a “Model” thread, discussing “models”. It’s unexplainable!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philferro7/status/1167207325129687041

[GeneratorPower]

I’m just in shock at how folks live and die based on these models. They’re just tools. They are not themselves a reliable forecast. Most of us don’t know how to interpret what they are showing.

It’s the models thread.

Boom! Love that comment

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I like it too

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Ukmet nailed Irma 4 days out.

Watching it big time