ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z shifted West, landfall in Treasure Coast then up the Florida peninsula.

18z what

Think she means the TCVN

[Hurricaneman]

18z shifted West, landfall in Treasure Coast then up the Florida peninsula.

18z what

I’m assuming the NAM

Oops it’s the tvcn which means it’s probably going to be the NHC track for the first advisory

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

[DESTRUCTION5]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1172241390690033665




I wouldn't say that's a out it sea consensus at all for the 12z Euro Ensambles

[HurricaneFrances04]

It looks like the members that show a stronger system are further north/OTS, while a weaker system is WNW towards east central Florida.

[Blown Away]

18z shifted West, landfall in Treasure Coast then up the Florida peninsula.

18z what

TVCN, sorry.

[tolakram]

Here's the animation of the 12Z euro. I don't think this stall is realistic, 5 full days in the same general area.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Well that 12z Euro run was pretty interesting lol... Interesting hook up towards Long Island before it gets pushed into Halifax where Dorian hit. In fact a lot of this reminds me of Dorian.

[icallstorms]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[icallstorms]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Since model runs aren’t happening right now, this is the 5:00 PM NHC Track.

[jfk08c]

18z GFS sticking with the unorganized mess still. Curious to see if the data gathered from the last flight will change its attitude with the 00z run

[Blown Away]

Anybody post comments on the 18z EURO?

[Kingarabian]

Anybody post comments on the 18z EURO?

It runs in about 2 hours.

[N2FSU]

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Dean4Storms]

Hard to ignore most of the guidance taking this up off the East Coast but at the same time what the 18z GFS is spitting out could also make sense if this continues to be a sheared mess.

[Cat5James]

Not counting the GFS out yet...

[Cat5James]

18z GFS sticking with the unorganized mess still. Curious to see if the data gathered from the last flight will change its attitude with the 00z run

What did they find that would make it change drastically?

[jfk08c]

18z GFS sticking with the unorganized mess still. Curious to see if the data gathered from the last flight will change its attitude with the 00z run

What did they find that would make it change drastically?

I'm not sure, still relatively new as far as the scientific aspects of storm watching. This is the first fly through of this system, so any readings are invaluable to the equations these super computers have to calculate. Whether or not it will make a difference in track is yet to be seen

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just a general request: When discussing the model runs, can we please specify what model we're talking about instead of just saying "12z does this"? It's a little jarring if you want to read what the 18z ECMWF is doing and a user says "18z has a hurricane by hour 120" only to find out it's the ICON or something lol. Sorry to play mod.

[NDG]

A lot of disagreement between the 12z Euro ensembles when it reaches near the 30th latitude on Sunday and it bumps into the narrow ridging remaining over the southern US.