ATL: JERRY - Models

[SFLcane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/623525752977227796/624659932092039189/AL10_2019092012_GEFS_large.png

The ones coming SW are absurdly weak though... a wave possibly

[aperson]

[aperson]

Models seem in reasonable consensus that the first trough cuts off and doesn't effectively capture Jerry. For the 12z Euro, the next incoming one lifts it out and takes it directly over Bermuda

[aperson]

... as a borderline major

[cycloneye]

Over Bermuda very strong.

[aperson]

Euro has it tropical above 40N after helping to create a catastrophic melting event in Greenland



What a fantasy land run.

Edit: and t=240 has a system with some tropical characteristics heading toward the UK

[LarryWx]

Fwiw since it is not a quality ensemble, the 12Z Crazy Uncle ensemble has 3 of 21 members looping west/lagging behind just NE of the Bahamas at hour 96. The prior run had nothing like that.

[Emmett_Brown]

It does seem like the trend today is toward a little more uncertainty after 72 hours. Just as nature intended.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS once again says hold your jets because the CONUS is still not yet 100% safe. More later from someone.

[crownweather]

12Z EPS once again says hold your jets because the CONUS is still not yet 100% safe. More later from someone.

I count at least 12 members that show a potential CONUS threat from Jerry. Tough to tell though because it's possible that a member or two could actually be 99-L.

Those that hate to wait for the free stuff, check out weathermodels.com . It's worth the $12.99/month.

[aperson]

12Z EPS once again says hold your jets because the CONUS is still not yet 100% safe. More later from someone.

ahh, chaos

[facemane]

This time of year though there will definitely be a trof waiting.

you are probably right, but I have seen much weirder things happen in the world of tropical weather

happy 4000th post!

Georges is a good example. it struck Biloxi Ms. on Sept 28 1998. There were no troughs to recurve it away. The continental
U.S. was under a mid summer type zonal flow. We were very fortunate it never recovered it's cat 4 status after hitting Hispaniola.

[NDG]

Very strange teleconnection pattern we are in, deep troughiness across the western US with ridging across the eastern US yet the PNA index is positive and NAO index near neutral to negative. I guess the troughiness hanging near Bermuda is what will keep pulling up poleward away from the US anything that forms east of the Caribbean.

[Emmett_Brown]

I don't see the 18z GFS on Tidbits yet... anyone know if it is late?

[LarryWx]

I don't see the 18z GFS on Tidbits yet... anyone know if it is late?

It is running on the NCEP site. Jerry is back NE of its prior run.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

WTH Jerry I thought you were a lock for a harmless fish storm now you are menacing Bermuda and might even make it to mainland North America (however unlikely)!?

[Kazmit]

Anyone have a link for the 18z GFS?

[CreponChris]

Here is the 12Z ECMWF 500 mb vorticity product animated for you all. Was going to post in in the AL99 thread but it's pretty dead




12Z EPS for All Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin showing the Eastern CONUS. Notice how few potential 'hits'. While this is a good thing - It's not feeding my adrenaline-junkie needs : [



~Christopher C.

[Highteeld]

Navgem Fujiwhara



https://i.imgur.com/G6CN5GM.mp4

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Here is the 12Z ECMWF 500 mb vorticity product animated for you all. Was going to post in in the AL99 thread but it's pretty dead



12Z EPS for All Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin showing the Eastern CONUS. Notice how few potential 'hits'. While this is a good thing - It's not feeding my adrenaline-junkie needs : [

[url]https://i.imgur.com/ztGK2lz.png[/url

~Christopher C.

Hope you’re not to dependent on adrenaline. With the pattern the gfs and now euro are showing, I think you will be going through some major withdrawals for the next 2 weeks.