ATL: DORIAN - Models

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM ends heading W to WSW but the overall run looks slower compared to the 18Z:

[Blinhart]

OK, these are starting to remind me too much of Andrew, I don't like that at all.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

My appologies to all and the Mod's should I have posted the question on the disscussion page?

[Blown Away]

00z NAM

[StPeteMike]

So I kind of feel like I already know the answer, but what does this southern track mean for the potential north turn?

[beachman80]

OK, these are starting to remind me too much of Andrew, I don't like that at all.

Not sure it has the steering to go as far west as Andrew did in the Gulf nor will it move as fast, but I am beginning to worry that this thing could become a triple header in that crushes the southern Florida tip, hits the keys and then takes aim at either Florida’s west coast or panhandle.

[Steve]

[imgur][/imgur]

So I kind of feel like I already know the answer, but what does this southern track mean for the potential north turn?

It doesn’t go far enough out - only 84 hours. Slowdown has been progged after the dip and you can just see the NAM starting that Sunday valid 8pm. If it keep chugging it’s one thing. If it dips and slows it’s probably coming in and up. If you run the NAM at 500mb, the ridging to the north isn’t as strong, and a tiny shortwave is rotating around and out of that giant low in Canada.

Edit my bad. 84 hours is 8am Monday

[will759227]

The way each of these models keep going, it's going to be sunday before we have an idea if it's going to run up either coast, split the state or whatever. Time will tell how much it follows the short term tracks.

[Aric Dunn]

For what its worth that turn might have started earlier as I mentioned earlier..

[Blinhart]

For what its worth that turn might have started earlier as I mentioned earlier..

I totally agree, I think the turn has started, and that isn't a good thing because the NHC just stated in their discussion that they didn't expect it to turn until Friday Night/Saturday Morning. That would cause a major change in a lot of things.

[Javlin]

ICON is running ATTM 33hr 25.6N 72.0W 12Z was 26.1N 73.2W

ULL less pronounced and looks like the 1020 ridge is stronger?

[beachman80]

00z ICON is rolling. Definitely more SE than its previous run in 48 hours.

[Sanibel]

For what its worth that turn might have started earlier as I mentioned earlier..

It doesn't help that someone decided to take the old floaters away...I also noticed that but I can't tell because the loop image is so tiny...

The HMON is like the devil making sure a major side-steps Florida and comes up from under us from the south after wrecking the Keys...Worst case scenario...

Real time stakes now with this south trend...

[Aric Dunn]

ULL is boogieing now.. DOrian as reached the latitude break point in the flow around the ULL. where it switches from sse to se then ese.. hence the possible turn happening.

[Frank P]

For what its worth that turn might have started earlier as I mentioned earlier..

I totally agree, I think the turn has started, and that isn't a good thing because the NHC just stated in their discussion that they didn't expect it to turn until Friday Night/Saturday Morning. That would cause a major change in a lot of things.

Hard to tell looking a the IR loops, however it does hint at a more WNW motion with the last few frame... possible wobble? Need more loop frames to confirm for me

[jfk08c]

Will have to see how sharp the turn is if it is indeed making its move. As long as it stays above 24N 70W, it'll still be roughly on track with the UKM

[Aric Dunn]

For what its worth that turn might have started earlier as I mentioned earlier..

I totally agree, I think the turn has started, and that isn't a good thing because the NHC just stated in their discussion that they didn't expect it to turn until Friday Night/Saturday Morning. That would cause a major change in a lot of things.

Hard to tell looking a the IR loops, however it does hint at a more WNW motion with the last few frame... possible wobble? Need more loop frames to confirm for me

also with recon..

[BobHarlem]

Excerpt from the discussion since it specifically targets the models
"As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane. There`s been a notable trend on this model cycle toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets incorporated into the 00Z models."

Blake is really looking forward to 0z it seems.

[SunnyThoughts]

00z GFS rolling

[catskillfire51]

So far 6-18 hrs seems NW