ATL: DORIAN - Models

[shah83]

One general model trend, overall, the storm has been getting bigger.

[TheProfessor]

Canadian seems to be doing something similar to the 12z Euro

[Sanibel]

Tomorrow we'll see if they run that a touch south and into the Gulf so we can get trapped by the worst case scenario here off the SW coast...

[CrazyC83]

The GFS comes very close to the ultimate worst case scenario - it makes me wonder if it is just deliberately trying to destroy everything it can? If the trough is a bit faster late in the run or the ridging is stronger, it would be coming into the Northeast.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I was young but grew up in Key West when 1960 Donna hit

[will759227]

this GFS run looks like something someone would wishcast if they hated FLorida...would take out WPB, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jax!!!

The good news is, orlando,tampa,jax would get a tropical storm - assuming timing stays the same.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

this GFS run looks like something someone would wishcast if they hated FLorida...would take out WPB, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jax!!!

The good news is, orlando,tampa,jax would get a tropical storm - assuming timing stays the same.

You're forgetting the potential for flooding would be extreme, especially for Orlando and Tampa.

[KC7NEC]

Another thing is the GFS run shows 6-12" rain all the way up the track through Florida. Though Orlando, Tampa, Jax may only get TS winds they are going to get drowned.

[CronkPSU]

this GFS run looks like something someone would wishcast if they hated FLorida...would take out WPB, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jax!!!

The good news is, orlando,tampa,jax would get a tropical storm - assuming timing stays the same.

true but flood and surge damages could be catastrophic with that slow movement

[Highteeld]

[will759227]

Will so much for forcasting then, everyone wil know when it happens

Definitely can't forecast a stall. And it stalling is the difference between the coast/central florida getting hurricane winds vs tropical storm. Apparently it thinks it will stall though. We'll see.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Is that the start of the most recent ICON run?

[will759227]

Another thing is the GFS run shows 6-12" rain all the way up the track through Florida. Though Orlando, Tampa, Jax may only get TS winds they are going to get drowned.

Yeah, likely my lake goes over, it's luckily not been raining a lot the last few weeks.So hopefully we don't get flooded, we didn't with irma and she was close.

[northjaxpro]

00z GFS looks like a very classic Florida hurricane track... No hurky jerky stuff, just smooth W to WNW and NW turn over Florida. Classic.

New UKMET and GFS actually in decent agreement, the main difference is that the UKMET does make it back into the GULF and the GFS starts moving north along the WC of Florida.[/quote

I am leaning onto this solution as UKMET has had Dorian crossing into the GOM, from either Central or South Florida, all through this modeling cycle over the past week. Then, Dorian moving up through NE GOM and over Nrth Florida or inland North /NE Florida later next week.

[StPeteMike]

this GFS run looks like something someone would wishcast if they hated FLorida...would take out WPB, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jax!!!

The good news is, orlando,tampa,jax would get a tropical storm - assuming timing stays the same.

At 991, which the GFS forecasts, that could still be a Cat 1 storm. And like mentioned, now you’re talking about more places receiving catastrophic rainfall and Gulf waters being pushed in Tampa Bay.

There’s also the problem of probably the largest peacetime evacuation with this storm.

[p1nheadlarry]

I could feel the eyewall from three different angles on that run!

I'm trying to imagine the cost of a strong storm on that path.

SE Florida, Tampa, Orlando, JAX. Even Tallahassee would take some damage.

Tallahassee was on the dirty side of Michael and was out of power in some parts longer than PCB was. I think they'd fare better here with the weakling trees now out of the way.

[SFLcane]

Is that the start of the most recent ICON run?

00z Icon has Dorian as a powerful hurricane heading w-wsw toward SFL. It’s been very consistent

[Lane]

Is that the start of the most recent ICON run?

It started a while ago. Hung up at 42hrs, appears to be running again.

[Highteeld]

strongest run of the ICON yet

[catskillfire51]

Icon 108hrs still going west or maybe just north of west. Wave infront of it seem stronger as well