BensonTCwatcher wrote:SFLcane wrote:In terms of the SE lets hope this does indeed gets tangled with haiti because this one is not turning.
https://i.imgur.com/UpMrCF0.png
This is what I am looking at today. Mainly because this is the most significant synoptic feature that will factor in down the road. 2 days ago it looked like Caribbean shear (ULL) and flow from that big Texas high were going to inhibit development...well we're in a different spot now. The position of the "Bermuda high" and as some have named the "thumb ridge" is to be watched on the Euro and new GFS in my opinion and even the NAM for meso scale as we get into Wed or so of this week. That said, if I was betting on this storm, it would be that it will end still to the right of the current Euro run 5-6 out. Shooting the mona passage seems plausible, but it's pretty rare for the FL east cost to see a storm landfall at that vector. A recurve with no US landfall is still a reasonable solution. There also appears to be an ULL south of Bermuda dropping down that could meet Dorian near Hispaniola and inhibit development.
Except for Frances and Jeanne in 2004 as many of us on this board remember. Angle is not that unusual considering historical track history.
