ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[LarryWx]

Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.

[artist]

[jfk08c]

Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.

When the GFS, known to severely overdo storm strength time and time again, fails to develop this system, it really makes you wonder.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro could be very telling then. But then again, it was the last to the party for Dorian.

[LarryWx]

Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.

When the GFS, known to severely overdo storm strength time and time again, fails to develop this system, it really makes you wonder.

I think that's more of the case with the old GFS (Legacy), which overdoes a lot.

[LarryWx]

Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.

And right after I posted that, wouldn't you know that the 18Z GEFS finally has a member stronger than 1003 mb: at day 6 it has one near 1000 mb 150 miles SE of SC moving very slowly NNW toward the NC/SC line before weakening.

[chris_fit]

18Z GFS ENS

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO ENS

[chris_fit]

18Z EURO trending little west

[mlfreeman]

12Z EURO ENS

https://i.imgur.com/ud1T34s.png

Are my eyes tricking me or are there ensemble members that head N, then NE, then loop back around to the west in there?

[sma10]

A lot of disagreement between the 12z Euro ensembles when it reaches near the 30th latitude on Sunday and it bumps into the narrow ridging remaining over the southern US.

https://i.imgur.com/ATZS9XF.gif

This will most likely turn out to be nonsense, but I'm struck by something on this ensemble run.

It's not unusual for a rogue member to have a wacky track, but it looks to me like a full 10% of this ensemble have an extended S to SW movement after reaching around 30N. This is not unprecedented, as Betsy (1965) was famous for that track. Just thought I'd mention that

[psyclone]

12Z EURO ENS

https://i.imgur.com/ud1T34s.png

Are my eyes tricking me or are there ensemble members that head N, then NE, then loop back around to the west in there?

There indeed are some that do that and it is a plausible scenario with ridging expected to reestablish to the north...perhaps blocking an escape path down the road..

[SFLcane]

00z models even further offshore when it’s all said and done PTC 9 might not affect anyone in FL.

[toad strangler]

00z models even further offshore when it’s all said and done PTC 9 might not affect anyone in FL.

You could be right. But, it’s all conjecture / blabber until or if a L closes off. I’d choose to wait and see what happens. It’s almost nowcast time anyway.

[CFLHurricane]

00z models even further offshore when it’s all said and done PTC 9 might not affect anyone in FL.

You could be right. But, it’s all conjecture / blabber until or if a L closes off. I’d choose to wait and see what happens. It’s almost nowcast time anyway.

Yup, any model forecast should be looked as showing noting more than a pattern until a surface low forms.

[gatorcane]

A lot of disagreement between the 12z Euro ensembles when it reaches near the 30th latitude on Sunday and it bumps into the narrow ridging remaining over the southern US.

https://i.imgur.com/ATZS9XF.gif

This will most likely turn out to be nonsense, but I'm struck by something on this ensemble run.

It's not unusual for a rogue member to have a wacky track, but it looks to me like a full 10% of this ensemble have an extended S to SW movement after reaching around 30N. This is not unprecedented, as Betsy (1965) was famous for that track. Just thought I'd mention that

There is one GFS ensemble that loops back around into South Florida after taking a track NW up to North Florida. See the 07 ensemble below:

[sma10]

A lot of disagreement between the 12z Euro ensembles when it reaches near the 30th latitude on Sunday and it bumps into the narrow ridging remaining over the southern US.

https://i.imgur.com/ATZS9XF.gif

This will most likely turn out to be nonsense, but I'm struck by something on this ensemble run.

It's not unusual for a rogue member to have a wacky track, but it looks to me like a full 10% of this ensemble have an extended S to SW movement after reaching around 30N. This is not unprecedented, as Betsy (1965) was famous for that track. Just thought I'd mention that

There is one GFS ensemble that loops back around into South Florida after taking a track NW up to North Florida. See the 07 ensemble below:

https://i.postimg.cc/vT6KT5xs/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-30.png

And let me correct myself as I seriously underestimated. After looking thru all ensembles, it's more like 35-40% of members that show a distinct southerly direction after stalling.

[Blown Away]

00z models even further offshore when it’s all said and done PTC 9 might not affect anyone in FL.

Not really, the TVCN shifted slightly W through 48 hours and slightly E at end. Don’t think you can give any consideration to Bam’s.

[sma10]

00z models even further offshore when it’s all said and done PTC 9 might not affect anyone in FL.

Not really, the TVCN shifted slightly W through 48 hours and slightly E at end. Don’t think you can give any consideration to Bam’s.

It's only 9:30. The only models at this hour are ... well, not so great. I don't think the NHC even bother with these anymore

[mlfreeman]

12Z EURO ENS

https://i.imgur.com/ud1T34s.png

Are my eyes tricking me or are there ensemble members that head N, then NE, then loop back around to the west in there?

There indeed are some that do that and it is a plausible scenario with ridging expected to reestablish to the north...perhaps blocking an escape path down the road..

I remember the initial model runs of Matthew predicting a long loop out by NC then back around to the space center as it went by me in N. Florida. Hope these turn out just as wrong.