WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Consolidation appear to be taking place; still has unreal convection near -100*C

[Highteeld]

Tropopause out of Palau is about -88*C

[aspen]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the tropopause height and temperature one of the main reasons that enables such cold convection in the WPac, and how Haiyan managed to pull off a full CDG ring?

[Highteeld]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the tropopause height and temperature one of the main reasons that enables such cold convection in the WPac, and how Haiyan managed to pull off a full CDG ring?

That and huge OHC's. Gilbert in the Atlantic hit a hotspot of OHC (wpac-like) and had a solid CMG ring, so did Wilma.

[Highteeld]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the tropopause height and temperature one of the main reasons that enables such cold convection in the WPac, and how Haiyan managed to pull off a full CDG ring?

There was also a jet streak (back right quadrant -- lift) that aided haiyan in attaining such massive intensity

[aspen]

Kammuri is now expected to go right through the largest and warmest part of the Hot Spot:

Based on how the core is slowly improving, it seems unlikely there will be time for an EWRC to halt intensification before landfall, and this scenario with a hot spot and better wind patterns ahead is reminding me of what caused Halong to explode earlier this month. The only thing that can keep Kammuri from becoming a potentially catastrophic landfalling system is if the core fails to fully recover; however, every global model continues to show improvement in its wind field and further intensification after 00z-06z 12/1, suggesting that the core should near full recovery within 12-24 hours. The only two models that don't show RI are the CMC and NAVGEM, but both still show a fully symmetrical wind field by tomorrow afternoon.

[Highteeld]

Kammuri is now expected to go right through the largest and warmest part of the Hot Spot:
https://i.imgur.com/l8lrLmP.gif
Based on how the core is slowly improving, it seems unlikely there will be time for an EWRC to halt intensification before landfall, and this scenario with a hot spot and better wind patterns ahead is reminding me of what caused Halong to explode earlier this month. The only thing that can keep Kammuri from becoming a potentially catastrophic landfalling system is if the core fails to fully recover; however, every global model continues to show improvement in its wind field and further intensification after 00z-06z 12/1, suggesting that the core should near full recovery within 12-24 hours. The only two models that don't show RI are the CMC and NAVGEM, but both still show a fully symmetrical wind field by tomorrow afternoon.

Just an afterthought, but has anyone here seen the CMC do an RI phase in a forecast? I saw it dip Kammuri down to 951.9 mb earlier, and I think that might be a record low pressure forecast for that model?

[aspen]

Kammuri is now expected to go right through the largest and warmest part of the Hot Spot:
https://i.imgur.com/l8lrLmP.gif
Based on how the core is slowly improving, it seems unlikely there will be time for an EWRC to halt intensification before landfall, and this scenario with a hot spot and better wind patterns ahead is reminding me of what caused Halong to explode earlier this month. The only thing that can keep Kammuri from becoming a potentially catastrophic landfalling system is if the core fails to fully recover; however, every global model continues to show improvement in its wind field and further intensification after 00z-06z 12/1, suggesting that the core should near full recovery within 12-24 hours. The only two models that don't show RI are the CMC and NAVGEM, but both still show a fully symmetrical wind field by tomorrow afternoon.

Just an afterthought, but has anyone here seen the CMC do an RI phase in a forecast? I saw it dip Kammuri down to 951.9 mb earlier, and I think that might be a record low pressure forecast for that model?

I’m not sure if that’s a record low, but it has consistently been going into the 960’s or a little below for the last few days.

[Highteeld]

Either way, this is going to be one of the most extreme model forecast busts or period of RI ever seen.

[aspen]

Either way, this is going to be one of the most extreme model forecast busts or period of RI ever seen.

It’s going to be interesting regardless, possibly record-breaking. I don’t recall any model busts in recent years that could be as much of a bust as this if Kammuri’s core fails to recover.

[Highteeld]

25 mb drop on the 12z euro between hour 30 and 36.

[Highteeld]

923 mb Peak at 02z Monday

[aspen]

Some banding features are showing up on IR, and a couple of hot towers have popped up near the center of circulation. These might be signs that Kammuri is recovering and continuing to build a better core.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/JamesMclaire/status/1200864026718175232

[Highteeld]

There we go.

[aspen]

Microwave imagery disagrees with that

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicsWatch ... 7281035264

[Highteeld]

:uarrow: Microwave imagery disagrees with that

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicsWatch ... 7281035264

Yikes, had not seen that.

[ManilaTC]

Much clearer in this shot.

[aspen]

:uarrow: Microwave imagery disagrees with that

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicsWatch ... 7281035264

Yikes, had not seen that.

It is a few hours old, and from the looks of things now, the center is within some of the deepest convection. That bad microwave presentation probably won’t last.

[Highteeld]

:uarrow: Microwave imagery disagrees with that

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicsWatch ... 7281035264

Yikes, had not seen that.

It is a few hours old, and from the looks of things now, the center is within some of the deepest convection. That bad microwave presentation probably won’t last.

That has happened before; iirc it happened with Dorian, and is what caused it to miss Puerto Rico to the north.