ATL: DORIAN - Models

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ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3401 Postby NFLnut » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:07 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
caneseddy wrote:Making the turn at 48 hrs on the Euro


makes the turn at 30 hours... but thats a little late.. its already started..



Yes. It appears to already be making almost a due west turn that is not forecast until 8pm tomorrow night.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3402 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:08 am

ridging holding with a perfect thumb ridge as well..

going to head straight west with maybe a wsw bend.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3403 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:09 am

Looks like it's going to be the same as the 12z, if not more east.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3404 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:09 am

Looks like it's coming in a lot weaker than earlier run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3405 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:10 am

rdcrds1 wrote:So the way i read the model thread is if it is bad for Florida it gets posted but if good then disregard lol carry on.

Then you're either reading it wrong or not actually reading it at all. You're not off to a great start with your first 2 posts.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3406 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:10 am

I say more west...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3407 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:12 am

Looks like much of the same with the early runs. Off to bed, wonder what I’ll wake up to in the morning.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3408 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:13 am

Euro looks like its finally doing better. not slowing down as much and head just north of west.. looks much more reasonable lol

its actually quite a bit faster..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3409 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:14 am

turns do west at 72 hours and starts to deepen over grand bahama island.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3410 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:15 am

96 hours.. dead on with the GFS and other models.. finally some good consensus for the 4 days..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3411 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:16 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Looks like it's going to be the same as the 12z, if not more east.


I probably should learn to wait until the model run actually finishes before jumping to conclusions like that.

Definitely faster by 96 hours. Nearly identical to the GFS up to that point.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3412 Postby NFLnut » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:17 am

rdcrds1 wrote:It is NOT moving West you are looking at cloud tops not the system sigh.


Definitely not looking at "cloud tops."
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3413 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:17 am

Euro,faster this run
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3414 Postby HDGator » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:96 hours.. dead on with the GFS and other models.. finally some good consensus for the 4 days..

Closest we have seen to now in the majors. I'm not liking the endpoint but so be it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3415 Postby will759227 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:18 am

Big jump west south west... man i am going to have to drive to sarasota from north tampa to get a generator and then hope i can find gas cans somewhere randomly lol :(
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3416 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:18 am

AtlanticWind wrote:Euro,faster this run



yeah about 24 hours faster.. good. its inline with the ukmet, and gfs.

finally lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3417 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:20 am

Seems like the Euro dropped the southerly component to the track, but a bit hard to tell with the 24-hour positions
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3418 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:22 am

very close to ukmet and gfs.

deepening while coming in.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3419 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:22 am

00z ECMWF makes landfall near WPB, by 120 hours directly over Kissimmee Prairie Preserve State Park (one of my favorite camping spots).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3420 Postby caneseddy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 am

Other than HWRF and Canadian all other modeling is coming to a consensus of landfall between Palm Beach County and Miami-Dade County
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