ATL: DORIAN - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3561 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:18 am

12Z icon..Looks like its coming for SFL @ 69hrs with wsw dip
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3562 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:18 am

ICON headed towards Miami/Ft Lauderdale: :eek:

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3563 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:19 am

Indeed. It's faster than most of the other models as well.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3564 Postby newtotex » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:21 am

SFLcane wrote:12Z icon..Looks like its coming for SFL @ 69hrs with wsw dip



Didn’t Katrina do something very similar? Or was the dip after it went into the Gulf?

Edit: it was over SFL
Last edited by newtotex on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3565 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:21 am

I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3566 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:22 am

12Z ICON nearly identical to 06Z run at 78 hours.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3567 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:22 am

caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?


not anyone model.. we take a look at them all.. see the average... consensus.. etc.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3568 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:23 am

caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?


I don't think many are putting faith in it, though it's the only thing running right now to comment on.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3569 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:23 am

caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?


Because it is the only one that continues being consistent, while the others are changing constantly.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3570 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:23 am

ICON right into Miami...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3571 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:23 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?


not anyone model.. we take a look at them all.. see the average... consensus.. etc.


I get it but does the Icon have some kind of great track record I'm not aware of? Not sarcastic just a legit question
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3572 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:24 am

84 hours and crawling towards Miami-Dade:

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3573 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:24 am

ICON with the reverse Z move to make sure it goes in closer to Miami. F or G storm coming up (looks like a fish) behind Dorian at 90
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3574 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:24 am

Blinhart wrote:
caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?


Because it is the only one that continues being consistent, while the others are changing constantly.


Actually the Ukmet has been remarkably consistent as well and has a pretty solid track record for the last few years
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3575 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:25 am

caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?

The ICON deserves at least some respect. It’s been very consistent for days and was in the UK camp before almost all other globals. Not a bad tool to help form a consensus so far for Dorian.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3576 Postby bqknight » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:25 am

caneman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?


not anyone model.. we take a look at them all.. see the average... consensus.. etc.


I get it but does the Icon have some kind of great track record I'm not aware of? Not sarcastic just a legit question


No it does not. The NHC does not use the ICON for track guidance. It's an intensity guidance model.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3577 Postby caneseddy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:26 am

supercane4867 wrote:ICON right into Miami...


Talk about consistency..ICON and UKMET have been the most consistent
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3578 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:26 am

bqknight wrote:
caneman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
not anyone model.. we take a look at them all.. see the average... consensus.. etc.


I get it but does the Icon have some kind of great track record I'm not aware of? Not sarcastic just a legit question


No it does not. The NHC does not use the ICON for track guidance. It's an intensity guidance model.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml


That's the other ICON. The one we look at is the aka German Model
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3579 Postby ExBailbonds » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:27 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
caneman wrote:I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?

The ICON deserves at least some respect. It’s been very consistent for days and was in the UK camp before almost all other globals. Not a bad tool to help form a consensus so far for Dorian.


With its consistency... If it verifies it will gain a lot of respect.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3580 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:27 am

ICON headed for Homestead:

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