ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#361 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:56 pm

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#362 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:57 pm

CaribJam wrote:Aric, what could be causing Jerry to be heading in this direction vs the NHC forecast? And how could this movement affect the long-term track?


well it is stronger than forecast so its being steered but a different layer of the atmosphere.

longterm if this keeps up then ridging could build in before it can escape.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#363 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:03 pm

IR presentation is degrading significantly.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#364 Postby CaribJam » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:07 pm

I do hope my neighbours in the northeastern Caribbean are watching Jerry VERY CLOSELY and taking all the necessary precaution.

It is better to be prepared and Jerry goes north and not be prepared and...
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#365 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:08 pm

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#366 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:10 pm

IR is degrading rapidly, this is no longer a hurricane IMO, this is at best a TS and that’s still pushing it.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#367 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:15 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:IR is degrading rapidly, this is no longer a hurricane IMO, this is at best a TS and that’s still pushing it.


however that is not the case at all.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#368 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:34 pm

Still a hurricane, but probably more like 80 knots by now.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#369 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:47 pm

Definitely still a hurricane but weakening and taking a jog NW
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#370 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:49 pm

6 hours motion of ~ 278 or west. vs the NHC forecast.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#371 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:51 pm

And this west motion is allowing it to move into much lower shear...

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#372 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:52 pm



of course it instantly jogs up to there lol.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#373 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:54 pm

also looks like hurricane warnings may go up for the NE islands by 5am if this motion continues till then.

it will be hard to miss the NE islands by then.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#374 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:58 pm

Lol absolutely not rapidly degrading. At least not yet

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#375 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:02 am

StruThiO wrote:Lol absolutely not rapidly degrading. At least not yet

https://i.imgur.com/BSmQbwA.png


nope..

and now with another large burst with convection expanding everywhere really.. it is moving into lighter shear now.. so interesting next 12 hours. if it stays this track it will ride inside the lighter shear zone until north of PR.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#376 Postby NotSparta » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:12 am

It's trying, another burst around the center

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#377 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:43 am

At what point are we going to just out our window and see it heading closer to the islands....but also note, 0900z position from NHC is exactly the 0600 forecast from 2100z NHC forecast...big forecast skill score plus up

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W

I suspect wording after recon to say the following: "adjusted S due to..." or "unexpectedly "
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#378 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:59 am

Not sure why no one mention what the drops from the GIV showed last night. There is clearly flow pushing Jerry more W...maybe a needle ridge. Check 400 and 500mb

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#379 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:17 am

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1174975184995897345


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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#380 Postby stormwatcher95 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:37 am

Satellite loop shows a bee line for Antigua and Barbuda if the present motion keeps up. Convection is really firing up at the same time.
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