ATL: DORIAN - Models

[toad strangler]

Well while Florida throws a collective party after this run, the Carolinas freak the heck out.

No idea what this means as all Dorian has to do is be 25 -30 miles further west for a huge hurt on much of the FL coast.

[tolakram]

Horrible solution for the Bahamas, just horrible.

I edited my post above but for those calling model failure let's be clear.

1. You're showing your bias
2. Model accuracy 4 days out is not all that great. 50 miles makes a big difference when you're talking on or off the coast.
3. This is why there's a cone of uncertainty. It's still not certain where Dorian will be on Monday.

[jfk08c]

The problem with this run is that anything that close to landfall only needs a slight variance to decimate a town. Being on this forum, I would assume most people posting would understand wobble and the errors that can occur in forecast runs. Don't get me wrong, great news that things seem to be trending more east. But sounding the all clear alarm based off one run is extremely ignorant

[chris_fit]

ICON feeling really lonely right about now

[BobHarlem]

FWIW, Irma was forecast into SC at this longitude w/ it staying offshore of Florida.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow that EURO run just saved the US Billions. (Let's hope it sticks!)

[TheProfessor]

Just a few things to take from the Euro. 1. If this storm managed to go OTS that would be amazing, especially for places like the western half of Florida. 2. Even with the Euro's track there'd likely be significant impacts from Florida to the Carolinas. 3. Just like Matthew any wobble in either direction could greatly increase the impacts that this storm has on a similar track. Finally I'd say that everyone should keep preparing as if this storm is going to head into Florida, don't get complacent.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The problem with this run is that anything that close to landfall only needs a slight variance to decimate a town. Being on this forum, I would assume most people posting would understand wobble and the errors that can occur in forecast runs. Don't get me wrong, great news that things seem to be trending more east. But sounding the all clear alarm based off one run is extremely ignorant

Yeah the same thing happened with Matthew. It was a small difference between a historic disaster and a storm that barely did any damage to Florida. It's ignorant to not pay attention and be ready for this storm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, hopefully the trends continue. Hopefully, Florida can get lucky again and the entire SE gets passed on this storm. Prayers that the trend continues.

[Raebie]

Well while Florida throws a collective party after this run, the Carolinas freak the heck out.

No idea what this means as all Dorian has to do is be 25 -30 miles further west for a huge hurt on much of the FL coast.

Yes, I'm aware of that. My point is that until this run, Dorian hasn't been on anyone's radar in the Carolinas. That may need to change.

[pgoss11]

It's just toooo close - But I like the trend and possibility.....

https://i.imgur.com/vBgjg0w.png

The Carolinas are certainly not in the clear yet either. If Dorian does stay off shore if Florida it’s 5+ days before Dorian gets up there and we all know how things can change in the 5 day timeframe.

[LarryWx]

Anything can still happen really... That stall in Bahamas is killer. One wobble S and it might miss the weakness and ridging rebuilds.... It's still 4 days out.

That's the key now to future Euro and other runs as far as the SE US is concerned. Will there be this near stall about 50-100 miles offshore FL?

[supercane4867]

Model swings like this all the times. If the storm is in the middle of Atlantic then nobody would care about such swings...

[tolakram]

Wow, still in the error cone, but huge bust for NHC if US miss happens. People will get over it and be happy...

I'm not going to call out every post but watch the bust designation, how is it a bust? Error cone is clearly offshore, way way offshore. If you're focused on the black line you're doing it wrong.

[Ken711]

Latest Euro sure looks like a Hurricane Matthew track.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't believe the 12Z Euro too much just yet. It's been inconsistent enough from run to run such that the next run may be back inland into Florida. It's always hard to predict just where the northward turn will occur. The slower Dorian moves as it passes the Bahamas, the farther east the turn will occur.

[OuterBanker]

The Euro is actually the worse for us. A 954 hurrricane just off Hatteras.
Not good.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Euro sure looks like a Hurricane Matthew track.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Matthew_2016_track.png

Smells like a Matthew 2.0 is coming!

[chris_fit]

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn't believe the 12Z Euro too much just yet. It's been inconsistent enough from run to run such that the next run may be back inland into Florida. It's always hard to predict just where the northward turn will occur. The slower Dorian moves as it passes the Bahamas, the farther east the turn will occur.

There you are! What’s your take?