EPAC: FLOSSIE - Remnants

[Ntxw]

90E (Future Flossie or Erick depending which gets there first with TD6) is going to be a monster for sure. The ceiling will be high.

[cycloneye]

90E (Future Flossie or Erick depending which gets there first with TD6) is going to be a monster for sure. The ceiling will be high.

https://i.imgur.com/jbvHke3.gif

It will be Flossie as TD-Six-E will be Erick in a few hours. I can see it peak at 120 kts.

[Yellow Evan]

It’s way too soon to play the Hawaii game given how many busts they’ve been the past few years. Nevertheless, this will likely become another potent long tracked hurricane that could get the basin back into the ACE game.

[Kingarabian]

It’s way too soon to play the Hawaii game given how many busts they’ve been the past few years. Nevertheless, this will likely become another potent long tracked hurricane that could get the basin back into the ACE game.

It's still a long way out so tracks can shift a lot in the meanwhile. But there's potentially two Hawaii threats in about a 10-12 day window, with future Erick and Flossie. Won't have much time to prepare so I'm beginning now just in case. After Lane last year and the EPIC Euro track forecast bust, taught me that it's better safe than sorry.

[Chris90]

90E (Future Flossie or Erick depending which gets there first with TD6) is going to be a monster for sure. The ceiling will be high.

https://i.imgur.com/jbvHke3.gif

That wider satellite view really gives a good look at how well it is organizing. It's farther along in the game than I thought it was. A circulation seems to be developing nicely.
Pretty sure that 06-E is going to be Erick and this is going to be bossy Flossie, the larger and more intense of the two.

[Kingarabian]

90E (Future Flossie or Erick depending which gets there first with TD6) is going to be a monster for sure. The ceiling will be high.

https://i.imgur.com/jbvHke3.gif

That wider satellite view really gives a good look at how well it is organizing. It's farther along in the game than I thought it was. A circulation seems to be developing nicely.
Pretty sure that 06-E is going to be Erick and this is going to be bossy Flossie, the larger and more intense of the two.

But the question is can it beat Flossie 2007:

[Chris90]

That wider satellite view really gives a good look at how well it is organizing. It's farther along in the game than I thought it was. A circulation seems to be developing nicely.
Pretty sure that 06-E is going to be Erick and this is going to be bossy Flossie, the larger and more intense of the two.

But the question is can it beat Flossie 2007:

The '07 iteration of Flossie was a beauty for sure. She's another one of those EPAC storms I think might be underrated with a peak intensity of 120kts. I'm in agreement with Ntxw on future Flossie's potential for 130kts. I think she's going to be comparable to Barbara, so I think she'll beat her 2007 incarnation. Interesting that future Flossie is a potential threat to Hawaii, specifically the Big Island, same as she was in '07.

[Kingarabian]

That wider satellite view really gives a good look at how well it is organizing. It's farther along in the game than I thought it was. A circulation seems to be developing nicely.
Pretty sure that 06-E is going to be Erick and this is going to be bossy Flossie, the larger and more intense of the two.

But the question is can it beat Flossie 2007:

The '07 iteration of Flossie was a beauty for sure. She's another one of those EPAC storms I think might be underrated with a peak intensity of 120kts. I'm in agreement with Ntxw on future Flossie's potential for 130kts. I think she's going to be comparable to Barbara, so I think she'll beat her 2007 incarnation. Interesting that future Flossie is a potential threat to Hawaii, specifically the Big Island, same as she was in '07.

Yeah. My goodness it looked so good in its own unique way. Let's see what Flossie 2019 got and if it will play nice with Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS with the same overall setup.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF actually pretty similar.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure accompanied by disturbed weather is located
a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This system has
become better organized since yesterday, and conditions appear
favorable for additional development. A tropical depression is
expected to form early next week while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Still far out of course but there are hints from operation models and ensembles that eventually there will be a break in the ridge.

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Jul 28, 2019:

Location: 10.0°N 103.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902019 07/28/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 40 48 57 66 74 78 79 80 80
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 40 48 57 66 74 78 79 80 80
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 40 46 51 55 57 57 56 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 4 6 5 6 8 9 6 12 11 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 4 7 8 1 1 1
SHEAR DIR 10 8 344 12 339 315 294 286 278 287 358 21 357
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.1 27.4 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 156 153 149 153 154 155 155 148 141 141
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 67 71 73 74 71 68 66 61 57 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 16 20 22 21 21 21
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -32 -29 -28 -18 4 12 14 26 30 22 11
200 MB DIV 18 21 30 36 24 51 142 92 115 100 80 28 8
700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 4 4 2 0 0 -6 -3 -4 -4 -2
LAND (KM) 828 869 889 944 1002 1133 1270 1407 1582 1800 2066 2324 2039
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9
LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.8 106.4 108.0 109.6 112.5 115.2 118.3 121.6 125.1 128.7 132.4 136.2
STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 14 14 16 17 18 18 18 18
HEAT CONTENT 16 22 30 32 27 18 47 16 38 21 19 6 20

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 13. 16. 16. 15. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 23. 32. 41. 49. 53. 54. 55. 55.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 103.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 5.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.73 6.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.5% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 23.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 15.5% 63.3% 41.3% 30.7% 15.6% 39.0% 54.2% 49.7%
Bayesian: 0.4% 25.4% 3.9% 1.3% 0.7% 24.0% 28.7% 4.7%
Consensus: 5.3% 38.4% 23.1% 10.7% 5.5% 28.1% 35.4% 18.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Might be ready to be declared.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure accompanied by disturbed weather is located
several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system
continues to become better organized, and conditions appear
favorable for additional development. A tropical depression is
expected to form within the next day or two while the system moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 280622
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 28/0600Z

C. 10.7N

D. 105.5W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET
IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, continue to show signs of organization. Conditions are
conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today or on Monday while the
low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ26 KNES 281228
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 28/1200Z

C. 12.1N

D. 106.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT
IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION AND
CLOUD FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[cycloneye]

As of 12:00 UTC Jul 28, 2019:

Location: 10.8°N 106.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM