WPAC: FAXAI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021821Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 14W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN WEAK. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 14W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS TS 14W TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TS 14W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TROUGH TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 113 NM BY TAU 72.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30
DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF 415 NM. NAVGEM IS THE NOTABLE
OUTLIER AND RE-CURVES TS 14W SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER THAN THE REST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/DDQhCX3.png

You do realize you have to keep doing these forever now, right?

[Hayabusa]

https://i.imgur.com/DDQhCX3.png

You do realize you have to keep doing these forever now, right?

Yeah, it's really fun generating the plot, and since the ukmet doesn't have the plot graphic generated until hours later, why not do a favor for WPAC watchers who are eager to see the ukmet as soon as possible
Well I might sometimes not post a graphic if things in the WPAC are really a dud though

[1900hurricane]

14W actually has a good circulation, it just need the unrelenting shear to relent a bit.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 030000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 14W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN WEAK BUT HAVE
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 14W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS TS 14W BEGINS TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND
ALLOW TS 14W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUN, BOTH IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW HAS A SPREAD OF 220 NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS NOW LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30 DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
POOR AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF 320 NM. NAVGEM IS THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER AND RE-CURVES TS 14W SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER THAN THE
REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF TRACK.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1601 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 030632Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT
CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. TS 14W IS TRACKING WESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS TS 14W BEGINS TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND
ALLOW TS 14W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 70 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
120 NM AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 150 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
FAVORING THE ECMWF TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 4 September 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 4 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°55' (17.9°)
E159°20' (159.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[1900hurricane]

Took JMA a hot minute there.

[1900hurricane]

14W still has a tenacious circulation. Just needs to get out from beneath that upper level low.

[Hayabusa]

Assuming 14W becomes what as JTWC is forecasting this would similarly remind me of Soulik and Cimaron of 2018
Lingling is Soulik and 14W is Cimaron

[1900hurricane]

If 14W can manage to sneak more between the big TUTT cells, it may be able to find a better environment where the two can ventilate the system. Maybe. Then again, the westerly shear still looks pretty strong there. That may be a big ask anyway. 14W might not amount to much more than a sheared tropical storm.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING MSI AND A 032319Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS
ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES,
CORROBORATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, GIVEN ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHWEST, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD, BUT IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. TS 14W IS TRACKING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (AT
LEAST 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL DIMINISHES IN THE COMING DAYS, THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
RECURVE TOWARD JAPAN. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INTENSIFY
TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POORER AGREEMENT, WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK AND
CROSS-TRACK ERRORS. HOWEVER, AN EVENTUAL RECURVE SCENARIO IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

Remains a TS.

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 041811Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE AND
INHIBITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A MODERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING VENTILATION
TO THE OFFSET CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AT 5-15KTS ARE
MOSTLY FAVORABLE. TS 14W IS TRACKING OVER WARM SSTS (30C) UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR.
AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND
THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AFTER IT PASSES
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
SLOW THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 72 AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD JAPAN ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS, MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 96
OVER HONSHU SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 70KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY AT
TAU 96, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KANTO PLAIN, EXITING BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AFTER TAU 108 BEFORE TRANSFORMING INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, POSSIBLY
INDICATING EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TY 15W, FORECAST
TO BE POSITIONED OVER NORTH KOREA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS, HOWEVER,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
NAVGEM, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED OVER LAND.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

671
WTPQ31 PGUM 042102
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm 14W Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP142019
705 AM ChST Thu Sep 5 2019

...TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...18.8N 156.2E

About 680 miles west of Wake
About 735 miles east-northeast of Saipan
About 835 miles north of Pohnpei
About 845 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 14W
was located near Latitude 18.8 degrees North and Longitude
156.2 degrees East. 14W is moving west-northwest at 8 mph. It
is expected to continue in this general direction with an
increase in forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. 14W is forecast to
slowly intensify the next couple days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
100 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST this afternoon.

$$

M. Aydlett

[euro6208]

Good call on JTWC maintaining this as a TS. Scatterometer continues to show TS force winds.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ50 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1915 FAXAI (1915) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 19.6N 155.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 22.4N 149.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 070600UTC 26.6N 143.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 080600UTC 32.9N 137.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 090600UTC 40.2N 143.9E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (AMSI)
SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS MOVED BENEATH DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER THE SYSTEM IN THE AMSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS MAINTAINS A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHWEST AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF TS 14W. THESE FEATURES
ARE CAUSING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CYCLONE, WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS RESTRICTING WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND
INHIBITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST PROVIDES
VENTILATION FOR THE SYSTEM. TS 14W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
(5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CONTINUES TO
STEER TS 14W TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR.
AFTER TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
ROUND THE STR AXIS. AROUND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS
NORTH OF IWO TO. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO PEAK AT 90 KTS BY TAU 72 WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT
CELL AND TOWARD THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD JAPAN ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 84 OVER
HONSHU SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO. UPON LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE AS VWS VALUES INCREASE AND LAND INTERACTION DECREASES
INTENSITY TO 55 KTS BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
KANTO PLAIN, EXITING BACK OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE COMPLETING
ETT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE AND
TRACK SPEED OVER LAND.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Looks to be intensifying now.