ATL: JERRY - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#41 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:12 pm

drezee wrote:18z Euro slightly SW @ 90 hours and heading W


This 90 hour 18Z Euro location is almost right on top of the 0Z Euro's 108, which went on to recurve pretty easily east of the CONUS. It then came close to Bermuda. Let's see what the 18Z EPS shows.
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#42 Postby wx98 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:45 pm

The CMC has a weak hurricane hitting/grazing Bermuda next Tuesday. GFS doesn’t really like it as of now. It has a TD/weak TS that dissipates in the Bermuda Triangle.
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#43 Postby wx98 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:48 pm

ECMWF also brings a weaker system about halfway between Miami and Bermuda and stalls it out...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#44 Postby WxEp » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:05 pm

LarryWx wrote:
drezee wrote:18z Euro slightly SW @ 90 hours and heading W


This 90 hour 18Z Euro location is almost right on top of the 0Z Euro's 108, which went on to recurve pretty easily east of the CONUS. It then came close to Bermuda. Let's see what the 18Z EPS shows.


18Z EPS has significantly more members south. At hour 144, out of the 17 members I counted that have a tropical cyclone, 7 are near or over the Greater Antilles. There was only 1 at 12Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#45 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:20 pm

LarryWx wrote:
drezee wrote:18z Euro slightly SW @ 90 hours and heading W


This 90 hour 18Z Euro location is almost right on top of the 0Z Euro's 108, which went on to recurve pretty easily east of the CONUS. It then came close to Bermuda. Let's see what the 18Z EPS shows.

Im comparing to the 12z...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#46 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:30 pm

https://twitter.com/genymg/status/1173775993514942464
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#47 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:37 pm

00z GFS rolling now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#48 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:03 pm

Uh oh. GFS hands 97L from one ridge to another. Misses the escape route. Keeps 97L weak.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#49 Postby StormTracker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:06 pm

00z GFS bending back to the west at about 114 hours out.
Last edited by StormTracker on Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#50 Postby StormTracker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:09 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Uh oh. GFS hands 97L from one ridge to another. Misses the escape route. Keeps 97L weak.

Yep, saw that GP...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#51 Postby CaribJam » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:13 pm

Please post the image. Thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#52 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:14 pm

CaribJam wrote:Please post the image. Thanks

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=150
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#53 Postby StormTracker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:29 pm

Around 180 - 204 hours it kinda stalls & meanders a little south and west in the SE Bahamas. As GeneratorPower said, it missed the weakness so it gets caught in between the two ridges!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#54 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:32 pm

0Z Ukmet is even further South then GFS. Around the north coast of Hispaniola by D6
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#55 Postby StormTracker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:36 pm

Starting emulate the same Dorian/Humberto pattern into 200+ hours of the 00z run. GFS trending further west for now...ST
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#56 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:05 am

6z GFS is back on board with this- strengthens it into a hurricane while recurving.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#57 Postby Dylan » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:09 am

Trend from 0z EPS members is a bit concerning, with an increasing amount threatening the US down the line.
Last edited by Dylan on Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#58 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:53 am

Dylan wrote:Trend from 0z EPS members is a bit concerning, with an increasing g amount threatening the US down the line.


Graphic

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#59 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:05 am

HWRF and UKMET are pretty far south near or over PR but they were also left biased with Dorian.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#60 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:19 am

UKMET 00Z Ens

Image
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