ATL: KAREN - Models

[gatorcane]

Moving NE slowly at 240 but it’s a close call and that is a long time from now.

[GeneratorPower]

GFS ended up taking the weak system in the same overall direction with a SW dip then over Cuba then landfall NGOM

[GeneratorPower]

Moving NE slowly at 240 but it’s a close call and that is a long time from now.

And this run is a big change from last run. Ridge placements are totally whack but oddly storm behavior matches GFS. I’d say we have a definite case of new data being invested into models causing a flip flop.

[sma10]

Early days, but things are interesting with 99L.

Would like to see 12z EPS - I imagine there are a lot of wild long range solutions

[Emmett_Brown]

The unusual pattern continues... the troughs that turn storms are not so much those coming down through the midwest, but more so those nosing in through the back door from the N Atlantic/Flemish Cap area, drawing storms up and out. Looks like this might be the case with the 12z Euro if you extended this run past 240 hours.

[crownweather]

The reason for the changes in the guidance with 99L has to do with the weakening of Jerry. Previously, the model guidance left a big enough weakness from Jerry to pull 99L northward and keep it weak due to outflow created shear.

Now, the guidance seems to be catching on to the fact that Jerry may not be all that strong. This leads to less shear and a much weaker weakness. Now, the question is whether the ridge may be stronger in future runs and whether Jerry will leave behind any weakness at all.

[GeneratorPower]

Note the trend and focus on the ridge to the NW

[Hurricaneman]

This will probably end up a fork in the road situation like if the trough isn’t as deep as on the Euro it goes west into south Florida or northern Cuba and into the GOM but if vice versa then this will be heading out to sea after the Lesser Antilles

[TheStormExpert]

This will probably end up a fork in the road situation like if the trough isn’t as deep as on the Euro it goes west into south Florida or northern Cuba and into the GOM but if vice versa then this will be heading out to sea after the Lesser Antilles

Really GoM? Unless a significant sprawling ridge develops to its north and east I just don’t see that happening. Even Florida seems far from being hit on this recent Euro run.

[GeneratorPower]

This will probably end up a fork in the road situation like if the trough isn’t as deep as on the Euro it goes west into south Florida or northern Cuba and into the GOM but if vice versa then this will be heading out to sea after the Lesser Antilles

Really GoM? Unless a significant sprawling ridge develops to its north and east I just don’t see that happening. Even Florida seems far from being hit on this recent Euro run.

Trending that direction. See a couple posts up where I put the trend GIF

[gatorcane]

A lot of strong CMC ensembles turn this west north of Puerto Rico and beeline towards the Bahamas and South Florida / FL Straits

[GeneratorPower]

Need someone to post Euro ensembles. Where can they be found?

[Emmett_Brown]

Euro Ensembles: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL99

[LarryWx]

Euro Ensembles: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL99

12Z EPS: confusing because some of these US hits from Jerry & others from 99L

[sma10]

Euro Ensembles: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL99

12Z EPS: confusing because some of these US hits from Jerry & others from 99L

EPS for 99L looks exactly as I expected: chaotic. Barring a simple fast track East of PR and quickly out to sea, this looks like an interesting next few days as there is a chance of 99L to pull off a very anomolous track

[gatorcane]

A lot of strong CMC ensembles turn this west north of Puerto Rico and beeline towards the Bahamas and South Florida / FL Straits

https://i.postimg.cc/pTMmfCDZ/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-35.png

Another look at the 12Z CMC ensembles FWIW:

[kevin]

A lot of strong CMC ensembles turn this west north of Puerto Rico and beeline towards the Bahamas and South Florida / FL Straits

https://i.postimg.cc/pTMmfCDZ/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-35.png

Another look at the 12Z CMC ensembles FWIW:

https://i.postimg.cc/25chRMBS/99-L-geps-12z.png

It's still way too early to say at this point (the storm hasn't even formed yet), but I hope the future ensembles won't look like this one. The (I think average) bolded line even goes directly over the Bahamas .

[plasticup]

This will probably end up a fork in the road situation like if the trough isn’t as deep as on the Euro it goes west into south Florida or northern Cuba and into the GOM but if vice versa then this will be heading out to sea after the Lesser Antilles

Just to clarify, “out to sea” in this case means Bermuda’s third hurricane in two weeks.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS wants to do the same as Euro north of the Greater Antilles.

[sma10]

18z GFS wants to do the same as Euro north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/aw6ylwN.gif

Yep. And with an even more ominous upper level setup