ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DioBrando]

Probably Lorenzo, but are you all sure you don't want to wait until it's on the NHC site first?

YAY I'M FAMOUS
Y'all gonna get bombarded with me for a week uwu

[facemane]

Apologies if this is a bit of an amateur question, but what are the reasons that this system has been developing so much faster and farther east than all the other waves this year in that region, including the most recent ones such as the one that spawned Karen?

I find it to be really interesting.

I'm no expert,but it looks like Lorenzo is dealing with less SAL than prior storms

[Buck]

We've now blown past my prediction of "at least 5 named storms" in September. Lorenzo is #7. I know 2005 had 8 in October, but that are the monthly named storm # records for September and any month?

[Weathernerd645]

We've now blown past my prediction of "at least 5 named storms" in September. Lorenzo is #7. I know 2005 had 8 in October, but that are the monthly named storm # records for September and any month?

The record # of storms in September is 8, set in 2002 and 2010.

[StruThiO]

#2019ing

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1176167858742513664

[cycloneye]

Up to 40 kts.

Location: 11.2°N 24.8°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

[cycloneye]

Impressive rain rate.

 https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/1176218174213296130

[cycloneye]

Very impressive.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[AnnularCane]

Very impressive.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

He is beautiful.

[Abdullah]

Major Hurricane in sight!

[1900hurricane]

I really like this one. Should become strong while keeping away from landmass. Unfortunately, that likely means no recon for the duration of its existence, but you never know. It's consolidated quickly and I wouldn't be surprised if the 40 kt intensity estimate at 18Z was 5-10 kt lower than actuality. I don't know what the accuracy of each of these scatterometers is with tropical cyclones, but both ScatSat and SMAP got Lorenzo before 12Z. SMAP had an area of 35 kt winds at about 0730Z while ScatSat was as high as 40 kt around 10Z. Since then, apparent organization has continued with good curved band structure on microwave imagery. It reminds me of a good monsoon trough EPac or even WPac system early in life.

[Buck]

Looks like Lorenzo will be the one to take us over 100 ACE, potentially even over the "above-normal season" threshold of 111.

[cycloneye]

Up to 45 kts but maybe conservative?

AL, 13, 2019092400, , BEST, 0, 114N, 262W, 45, 1002, TS

[hurricanes1234]

Agreed, I would probably go for 55 mph but we know that speed doesn't exist.

[wx98]

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER OPEN WATERS...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 11.6°N 26.7°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[wx98]

Forecasting a hurricane in 24 hours and a Major by 96 hours

[hurricanes1234]

Forecasting a hurricane in 24 hours and a Major by 96 hours

If it manages to consolidate more than forecast overnight, I could fully see it becoming a hurricane before tomorrow night at 11.

[DioBrando]

  Help support Storm2K!

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER OPEN WATERS...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 11.6°N 26.7°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

I'm gonna be a strong boiii

I wonder if I might actually beat humberto?

[1900hurricane]

Structure continues to progress.

[StruThiO]

Looking good...